Grains Market Overview 22.07.2021

CBOT SRW wheat futures prices rose significantly yesterday. Corn and soybean futures prices in Chicago rose slightly. In Paris, wheat and rapeseed futures prices fell and corn futures prices fluctuated.

The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.1792. The price of US WTI crude oil increased to 70.30 USD/barrel.

Oil prices have risen despite surprising stock growth in the United States. According to known sources, data from the American Petroleum Institute show that crude oil stocks have increased by 806 thousand barrels. This will be the first increase in stocks since May, if confirmed by the Energy Information Administration.

CBOT
Chicago Contract USD/mt +/-
Wheat September 261.16 +3.77
Corn December 223.81 +1.08
Soybeans November 510.65 +0.46
Soymeal December 412.26 +4.74

 

EURONEXT
Paris Contract EUR/mt +/-
Wheat September 213.75 -1.75
Corn June 260.00 +3.00
Rapeseed August 523.75 -11.50

 

Yesterday, CBOT SRW September wheat futures prices rose by 10 1/4 cents to close at $7.10 3/4 a bushel. Rainfall in the northern United States and parts of Canada has put pressure on prices. Although the season is quite advanced and the yield potential is largely irreversibly lost, rainfall could still have an impact. The market is still expecting a record world's wheat production, but there are fears that wheat production in the EU and Russia will not reach the expected level. Rainfall in the EU slows down the harvesting campaign of wheat in France and Germany. Weekly export sales of wheat from the United States are projected within 350,000 - 600,000 tons. This amount should include the already announced sale of 134,000 tons of wheat to China.

Yesterday, the prices of December corn futures in Chicago went up by 2 3/4 cents to close at $5.68 3/4 a bushel. The corn market was highly volatile. Weather problems - drought and heat in the northern and western parts of the US Corn Belt provided support for prices. However, recent rainfall will still have a positive effect on the crops. No further precipitation is expected in the next 10 days. The latest frosts in Brazil will again affect the corn production, which is already expected to be low. Private analysts forecast an average yield of corn in the United States for 2021 of 180 bushels/acre, which will be easily reached if the weather stays normal for the season by mid-August. Others believe that the USDA's analysis is very aggressive and a yield of 179.5 bushels/acre is quite optimistic given the current situation. Weak US corn export sales have stopped funds from extending their net position, which has fallen by half since May. Good rainfall fell in the central and northern parts of Ukraine in the last two days. Weekly export sales of corn from the United States are expected within the range of -100,000 tons to +300,000 tons of the old crop and 100,000 - 400,000 tons of the new corn crop. In July, Brazil's corn exports will reach 3.195 million tons, according to Anec's forecast. The figure will be 37.4% lower than in July 2020. Corn prices in China have fallen to their lowest levels since November. This raises doubts about the future size of purchases from international markets. Heavy rains have fallen in Henan Province, China's largest producer of wheat and pigs. There are located the largest pig farms in the world. Rainfall increases the risk of spreading African swine fever because it leads to flooding on some farms.

Yesterday, Chicago November soybean futures prices increased by 1 1/4 cents to close at $13.89 3/4 a bushel. The soybean price was supported by the rise in the price of soymeal, but suppressed by the decline in butter. Dry weather in some parts of the United States will further push soybean supplies in the coming months. Soybean processors in the United States are increasing their profitability. Rainfall in southern Canada is putting pressure on the price of canola, and hence the rapeseed price in Paris. Canola price fell by 3.38% for the day. The decline in oil is estimated as an ongoing reaction on the market. The condition of soybean crops in the United States is likely to provide a yield of 51 bushels/acre. In the coming weeks, tight global supplies will push prices up again. Weekly export sales of soybeans from the United States are expected at -50,000 tons to +200,000 tons of old crop and 100,000 - 400,000 tons of the new soybean crop. Sales of soymeal will be within 175,000 - 500,000 tons and weekly soyoil sales are projected within -20,000 tons to +20,000 tons. Argentina sold 5 loads of soybeans to China.