Grain Highlights 08.08.2022

IKAR raised its forecast for the Russian wheat production in 2022 by 3 million tons to 95 million tons. The barley production will reach 21.5 million tons (20).

- IKAR raised its forecast for the Russian wheat production in 2022 by 3 million tons to 95 million tons. The barley production will reach 21.5 million tons (20). The total grain production will be 144.5 million tons (140). In 2021, the grain production in Russia was 121.4 million tons, including wheat production of 76.1 million tons. The current record was set back in 2017 – 135.5 million tons (and a wheat production of 86 million tons). Farmers note that the production is very good, but exports are weak. On the other hand, the recent rains have been significant in volumes and quickly reduce the quality of the unharvested grain.

- According to sources, 47.5 million hectares were sown with cereals in 2022 in Russia (+0.5 compared to 2021). The areas sown with spring cereals reached 29.1 million hectares (29.5), including wheat areas of 12.8 million hectares (13.1).

- Since the beginning of August, 424,000 tons of grain have been exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, including 231,000 tons of wheat and 193,000 tons of barley. The main buyers are Egypt, Sudan, Libya and Turkey. A week earlier, exports were 147,000 tons.

- 20 more ships loaded with corn are ready to leave Odessa port.

- The export capacity of the unblocked Ukrainian ports is about 4 million tons of grain and oil crops per month. Combined with the export along the Danube River and land connections, a monthly capacity of 6.6 million tons can be reached.

- The Ministry of Agriculture of France has raised its forecast for the soft wheat production in the country in 2022/23 to 33.9 million tons (+1 million tons compared to the previous estimate and 35.4 in 2021/22). The durum wheat production is projected at 1.4 million tons (1.6 in 2021/22), corn production is estimated at 12.4 million tons (15.2 in 2020/21), rapeseed production is expected at 4.3 million tons (+0.3 and +1) and the sunseed production is expected to reach 1.9 million tons (1.9).

- According to Datagro's forecast, the soybean production in South America will be 181.5 million tons in 2021/22 (-0.3 million tons compared to the previous estimate and -20% compared to 2020/21).

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of 03/08/2022, 5.74 million hectares of corn were harvested in Argentina, or 81% of the area, with 40.19 million tons of corn harvested at an average yield of 7 tons/hectare. The corn production is expected to reach 49 million tons. The 2022/23 sowing campaign of wheat is fully completed with 6.08 million hectares sown (6.1 in 2021/22). 17% of the crops are in good and fair condition (48% a year ago).

- According to data from the General Administration of China, soybean imports into the country were 7.88 million tons in July (-4.5% compared to June and 8.67 million tons in July 2021). The decline was due to low margins for processors. Over the period of January - July, the import was 54.17 million tons (-5.9%).

- In order to bring down the record domestic prices of wheat in India, the government may cancel the import tax of 40%. In the past week, the price reached 301.57 USD/ton, which is about 30% below international prices.

- In 2022, the grain production in Morocco will reach 3.4 million tons (-67% compared to 2021), including ommon wheat production of 1.89 million tons, durum wheat production of 810,000 tons and a barley production of 700,000 tons.