Grain Highlights 22.12.2022

According to Oil World's forecast, the global export of sunseed will reach 5.1 million tons in 2022 (2.2 in 2021).

- According to a forecast by Rusagrotrans, the production of oil crops in Russia will reach a record 29.2 million tons in 2022 (24.8 in 2021). The sunseed production is at16.46 million tons (15.64), soybean production is estimated at 6.04 million tons (4.77) and rapeseed production at 4.5 million tons (2.77).

- According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, the corn production in the country will be 22-23 million tons in 2022/23 (41.9 in 2021/22). The wheat and barley productions are projected at 19.4 million tons and 5.6 million tons, respectively. The total grain production will be 45 million tons and the export potential is expected at 49.2 million tons, which is due to high starting stocks.

- According to Oil World's forecast, the global export of sunseed will reach 5.1 million tons in 2022 (2.2 in 2021). Exports from Ukraine are expected at 2.7 million tons (0.1 in 2021 and 0.2 in 2020). The biggest importers of sunseed from Ukraine are Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Turkey. Sunseed exports from the EU during the season will be 1.98 million tons (1.47).

- According to data from the European Commission, during the week of December 12-18, rapeseed imports into the EU reached 116,100 tons (69,700 a week earlier). The main recipients were the Netherlands with 60,600 tons, Belgium with 31,600 tons and Poland with 12,200 tons. Since the beginning of the season, total rapseed imports reach 3.26 million tons (2.33), including 2.2 million tons from Ukraine, 0.8 million tons from Australia and 136,600 tons from Canada. The import of soybeans was 5.06 million tons (6.07), including 1.7 million tons from Brazil (3.4) and 2.2 million tons from the USA (1.7).

- Refinitiv Commodities Research forecasts a soft wheat production in the EU in 2023/24 of 134.7 million tons (-0.5 compared to the previous estimate), and durum wheat production of 8.3 million tons (-0.2). In 2022/23, soft wheat production in the EU was 129 million tons, and durum wheat production reached 8 million tons.

- According to data from Germany's statistics, rapeseed areas will reach 1.2 million hectares in 2023/24 (+8% compared to 2022/23). The areas with winter cereals are 5 million hectares - no change, including wheat areas of 2.8 million hectares (-2%) and barley areas of 1.3 million hectares (+5%).

- According to data from Austrian statistics, the production of cereals in the country was 5.2 million tons in 2022/23 (-2% compared to 2021/22). The wheat production was 1.7 million tons (+10%), corn production reached 2.1 million tons (-13%) and barley production was 758,300 tons (+3%). The production of oil crops is estimated at 473,400 tons, including soybean production of 245,600 tons (+4%) and canola production of 91,000 tons (+6%).

- According to AHDB data, in 2023/24 the areas with winter crops in Great Britain reached 1.8 million hectares (+1% compared to 2022/23). Areas with winter barley are 450,000 hectares (+4%), spring barley areas reach 632,000 hectares (-6%), and winter rapeseed areas are 416,000 hectares (+14%).

- Chicago commodity funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of corn, 1,000 contracts of soybeans and 10,000 contracts of wheat yesterday.

- Given the third La Niña in a row in Argentina, precipitation is extremely low. The worst grain production for the last 20 years is expected. Soil moisture is below the level of the poor 2008/09, when the soybean production was only 31 million tons from 18 million hectares. Over the December-February period, less rainfall is expected, which will disrupt the normal development of corn and soybean crops. The wheat production is projected to reach 11.8 million tons (8.3 in 2008/09).