Grain Highlights 10.02.2023

Stratégie Grains forecast a soft wheat production in the EU in 2023/24 of 129.7 million tons (+0.4 compared to the previous estimate and 125.6 in 2021/22).

- According to IKAR's forecast, the export of flour from Russia was 875,000 tons in 2022, and in 2023 it is expected to grow to 1.1 million tons.

- In the week starting from 15.12.2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,653.5 rubles/ton (+156.9 rubles/ton compared to the previous week). The export tax on barley will be 3,209.1 rubles/ton (+33.9) and the export tax on corn will be1,670 rubles/ton (+164.3).

- As of 02/09/2023, 93% of the corn areas were harvested in Ukraine, and 26.4 million tons of corn were harvested. Soybeans were harvested on 100% of the areas and 3.7 million tons of soybeans were harvested.

- Stratégie Grains forecast a soft wheat production in the EU in 2023/24 of 129.7 million tons (+0.4 compared to the previous estimate and 125.6 in 2021/22). Areas will increase in France and Italy. Winter wheat crops are in good condition. Barley production will reach 52.3 million tons (51.4 in 2022/23), and corn production is expected at 63.4 million tons (50.7).

- On Thursday, Chicago commodity funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of corn, 2,000 contracts of soybeans and 4,500 contracts of wheat.

- According to a forecast of the Rosario Grain Exchange, the soybean production in Argentina will reach 34.5 million tons in 2022/23 (37 in the previous estimate), which is the lowest level for the last 14 years. The corn production will be 42.5 million tons (45).

- According to CNGOIC data, in the week ending on 07/02/2023, soybean processing in China was 1.3 million tons, which is unchanged compared to the previous week, +36% compared to a month earlier and +700% compared to the previous year. Soybean stocks are estimated at 5.3 million tons (+23%, +19% and +60%).

- The Feed Growers Association of Thailand has purchased 60,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia at 337 USD/ton C&F and delivery in April. Feed barley was also bought at 310 USD/ton C&F for delivery in April/May.

- Algeria bought 360,000 – 400,000 tons of soft wheat of any origin and price 329 – 332 USD/ton C&F. The wheat will most likely be from the Black Sea region and one batch from France. Deliveries will be made in April.

- According to USDA analysts, world's barley production will reach 150.48 million tons in 2022/23 (+1 compared to the January estimate and 145.93 in 2021/22), including 13.7 million tons in Australia (+0.3), 21.5 million tons in Russia(+0.5). Exports from Australia will reach 7.7 million tons (+0.2). Barley exports from Kazakhstan are expected at 0.7 million tons (+0.1) and exports from Canada will be 2.8 million tons (-0.2).

- In their February report, USDA analysts forecast a 2022/23 world's sunseed production of 50.77 million tons (-0.31 million tons compared to January, 57.31 in 2021/22, 49.2 in 2020/21), including 4.4 million tons in Argentina (-0.2 and 4.05), 16 million tons in Russia (-0.5 and 15.6) and 10.4 million tons  in Ukraine (+0.4 and 17.5). Sunseed exports from Argentina will be 0.2 million tons (-0.05) and sunseed exports from Ukraine will reach a record 2.65 million tons (+0.2). EU sunseed imports are projected at 2.9 million tons (+0.02). Sunseed processing in Ukraine will be 10 million tons (+0.5). World ending sunseed stocks are expected to reach 4.85 million tons (-0.88, 8, 2.6), including 1.85 million tons in Ukraine (-0.3 and 4.69) and 0.74 million tons in Russia (-0.5 and 0.96).