Grain Highlights 13.10.2023

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has lowered its forecast for the 2023/24 wheat production in Argentina by 2% to 16.2 million tons.

During the week of October 18-24, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 5,734.7 rubles/ton (up from 5,244 the previous week). The export tax on barley will be 772.6 rubles/ton (down from 1,166.1), and the export tax on corn will be 3,271.8 rubles/ton (up from 3,120.8).

As of October 13, 2023, Ukraine has harvested 9.042 million tons of sunflower seeds from 77% of the planted areas and 5.847 million tons of corn from 22% of the areas.

USDA predicts wheat production in Kazakhstan to be 13 million tons (down from 15 in September and 16.4 in 2022/23). Exports are expected to reach 10 million tons (down from 10.5), and stocks are estimated to be 1.49 million tons (down from 3.09).

According to data from APK-Inform as of October 1, 2023, wheat stocks in Kazakhstan were 10.6 million tons (compared to 15.09 million tons the previous year).

According to the European Commission's forecast, the grain production in the EU in 2023/24 will reach 268.5 million tons (up 1% compared to 2022/23 and down 4.3% compared to the five-year average). The oilseed production is expected to be 33 million tons (up 6% and 11%).

According to Stratégie Grains' forecast for 2024/25, the areas sown with soft wheat in the EU will be 21.8 million hectares (up 0.1 compared to 2023/24), barley areas will reach 10.4 million hectares (up 0.1), and corn areas are expected at 8.5 million hectares (8.4).

According to Datagro's estimate as of October 6, 2023, Brazilian farmers have sold 85% of their 2022/23 soybean crop (compared to 81% in September, 88% the previous year, and an average of 92% over the last five years). Sales of the 2023/24 crop stand at 22% of the expected production (up 4%, with 17% the previous year and 29%). Sales of the second-crop corn for 2023/24 are at 59% (up 8%, with 61% the previous year and 75%).

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has lowered its forecast for the 2023/24 wheat production in Argentina by 2% to 16.2 million tons. Corn production is also expected to be lower due to dry weather.

The government of Argentina will apply the soy dollar scheme to purchases of barley, sorghum, sunseed, sunseed oil, and sunseed meal, according to Oil World data.

According to CNGOIC data for the week of October 1-7, soybean processing in China decreased by 50% compared to the previous week to 930,000 tons (a 39% decrease compared to 2022).

In September, soybean imports in China reached 7.15 million tons (up 31% compared to August and down 7.3% compared to September 2022). Since the beginning of the season, imports have reached 77.8 million tons (up 14.4%).

According to SEA's estimate for September, palm oil imports to India reached 834,800 tons (down 26% compared to August), sunseed oil imports reached 300,700 tons (down 17.8%), and soyoil imports reached 358,500 tons (up 0.1%). Total imports for the month were 1.55 million tons (down from 1.87).

Algeria canceled a tender to purchase 120,000 tons of forage corn from Argentina or Brazil with delivery in November.

Tunisia is seeking to buy 75,000 tons of hard wheat with delivery in November.