Grain Highlights 09.11.2023

Refinitiv Commodities Research forecasts the wheat production for the 2023/24 season in Australia to be 23.1 million tons (-1 compared to the previous forecast and -16.6 compared to 2022/23).

According to SovEcon's forecast, Russia is expected to export 3.8 – 4.2 million tons of wheat in November, a result that will be below the level of the previous year for the second consecutive month.

As of 08.11.2023, Russia has harvested 98.1 million tons of wheat bunker weight (-11.2 compared to the previous year) with an average yield of 3.25 tons per hectare (3.56). The harvested barley is 22.7 million tons (25.5) with an average yield of 2.8 tons per hectare (3.02). Corn harvesting continues, with 11.4 million tons of corn harvested from 63% of the areas with an average yield of 6.74 tons per hectare (5.75). The harvested sunseed reaches 16.7 million tons (11.6).

According to Oil World data, in October, soybean exports from the United States reached 9.6 million tons (2.5 in September), and from September to October, it was 12.1 million tons. Brazil's soybean exports were 5.53 million tons (6.4 and 3.8). In October, soybean exports from the six largest exporters (United States, Brazil, Canada, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) reached 16.89 million tons (9.72 in September and 16.52 the previous year). During the month, 12.97 million tons of soybeans were exported to China.

According to Oil World data, in September, canola oil exports from Canada reached the highest level in the last 6 months – 293,000 tons (+39% compared to September 2022), and from July to September, it was 0.83 million tons (+39%). The share of the USA as a customer in September was 95%, and in the last three months, it was 88% (75%). China received 140,000 tons of oil during the 2022/23 season.

The Rosario Grain Exchange lowers its forecast for the wheat production in Argentina for the 2023/24 season from 14.3 million tons to 13.5 million tons (11.5 in 2022/23).

Refinitiv Commodities Research forecasts the wheat production for the 2023/24 season in Australia to be 23.1 million tons (-1 compared to the previous forecast and -16.6 compared to 2022/23). The canola production will be 4.7 million tons (-0.2 and -3.6).

FAS USDA lowers its forecast for the wheat production in India for the 2023/24 season to 106 million tons, a result that is 2 million tons higher than in 2022/23. Exports during the new season are expected to be 1 million tons.