Grain Highlights 17.11.2023

The FAS USDA predicts wheat imports into Egypt for the 2023/24 season to be 12 million tons, marking an increase of 6.9% compared to 2022/23.

According to data from FranceAgriMer as of November 13, 2023, 86% of winter wheat crops in France is in good and excellent condition (91% the previous week and 98% the previous year). The sowing process is progressing slowly, with 71% of the planned areas already sown (+4% for the week, 96% the previous year, and 89% on average for the last five years). Corn harvesting has been completed on 97% of the areas (+3% and 100%).

In Belarus, a total of 9.47 million tons of grain and rapeseed have been harvested. The harvested corn reached 2.04 million tons.

Refinitiv Commodities Research predicts a soybean production of 159.3 million tons in Brazil for 2023/24 (-4.1 compared to the previous estimate and 154.6 in 2022/23). The corn production is expected to be 121.3 million tons (-3.9 and 131.8).

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts that soybean areas in Argentina for 2023/24 will reach 17.3 million hectares (17.1 in the previous estimate), with 18% already planted. Corn areas will be 7.1 million hectares (7.3), with 25.1% already planted. The wheat production is expected to be 14.7 million tons (15.4), with 20.2% of the areas already harvested.

In its November report, analysts from the Ministry of Agriculture in Argentina predict a wheat production in the country of 15.5 million tons, the second-lowest result in the last 8 years. In 2022/23, the production reached 12.6 million tons.

In its November report, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia forecasts a grain production in the state for 2023/24 of 14.51 million tons (-0.445 from October and 26.06 in 2022/23). The initial estimate for the production was 18.14 million tons. The wheat production is projected at 7.85 million tons (-0.275), barley production is estimated at 3.65 million tons (-0.190). The canola production forecast has been increased by 50,000 tons to 2.27 million tons.

FAS USDA predicts wheat imports in Egypt for 2023/24 at 12 million tons (+6.9% compared to 2022/23). The country's production is 8.87 million tons (-6.6%), and domestic consumption is 20.6 million tons. In 2023/24, GASC will import 5-5.5 million tons of wheat (5.8). Corn imports will be 6.5 million tons (+8%), the production are expected at 7.2 million tons (-3.2%), consumption is estimated at13.8 million tons (+2.2%), and ending stocks are expected to decrease by 6.7%.

In its November report, IGC analysts forecast a global wheat production of 786.6 million tons (784.9 in October and -2% compared to 2022/23). The production in Ukraine will be 28.7 million tons (+0.7 and +7%), wheat production in the EU will be 133.2 million tons (132.4 and 133.3). Wheat production will reach 90 million tons in Russia (89 and 95.4), 14.7 million tons in Argentina (-0.9 and 12.6), 9.6 million tons in Brazil (-0.8), the second-highest result in history, 12 million tons in Kazakhstan (-0.5 and 16.4). Ending wheat stocks worldwide will be 264 million tons (+1), and global exports are predicted at 195.7 million tons (-0.8).

In its November report, IGC forecasts worldwide soybean consumption in 2023/24 at 386 million tons (+8% compared to 2022/23), with carryover stocks remaining unchanged at 171 million tons. The total global grain production will be 2,295 million tons, the second-highest figure in history after 2021/22. Demand will be at a record high of 2,308 million tons, and carryover stocks will be 585 million tons. The corn production will reach 1,223 million tons (1,161 in 2022/23).