During the period from December 1 to 25, Russia's grain exports amounted to 3.1 million tons (-27.5% compared to the same period of the previous year), including wheat exports of 2.605 million tons (-31%), barley exports of 150,000 tons (-7.5%), and corn exports of 362,000 tons (+2.4%). For the entire month of December, grain exports are expected to be 3.85 million tons (-26%), with wheat exports accounting for 3.2 million tons. The largest buyers of wheat in December were Turkey, with 454,000 tons, Pakistan, with 230,000 tons, and Indonesia, with 200,000 tons.

The Russian government has approved a grain export quota for the period from February 15 to June 30, 2024, amounting to 24 million tons. In 2023, the quota was 25.5 million tons, and in 2022, it was 11 million tons, including 8 million tons of wheat. The current quota does not differentiate between types of grain.

In January, there is still no export tax on Russian sunseed oil, and the export tax on sunseed meal is 3,313 rubles/ton (compared to 4,079 in December).

According to Rosstat, Russia's grain production in 2023 reached 142.6 million tons, including 92.6 million tons of wheat, 21.1 million tons of barley, and 14.3 million tons of corn.

The harvested sunseed in Russia reached 16.697 million tons (+2% compared to 2022), soybean production reached 6.742 million tons (+12.3%), and rapeseed production reached 4.196 million tons (-7.1%).

From July 1 to December 27, 2023, Ukraine exported 17.484 million tons of grain (compared to 22.613 for the same period in 2022), including wheat exports of 7.255 million tons, barley exports of 991,000 tons, and corn exports of 9.097 million tons.

Strategie Grains published the first forecast for the soft wheat production in the EU in 2024/25, estimating it at 124.8 million tons (-1.1 compared to 2023/24).

The European Commission has raised its estimate for soybean production in the EU in 2023/24 to 2.8 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous estimate and 0.4 million tons more than in 2022/23. Soybean consumption is expected to reach 16.5 million tons (+1). The sunseed production crop is estimated at 10.2 million tons (+0.2 and +0.9), with consumption expected to be 10.7 million tons (+0.2 and -0.1).

According to COCERAL's forecast for 2024, the grain harvest in the EU and the UK is expected to reach 281.7 million tons (-5.4 compared to 2023). The soft wheat crop is projected to be 134.2 million tons (139.5), barley at 56.1 million tons (54.1), corn at 57.1 million tons (61.6), and rapeseed at 11.3 million tons (7.5).

According to StatsCan data for the period August 1 to December 17, 2023, Canada's exports of soft wheat increased by 9.4% compared to the previous year, reaching 8.26 million tons. Durum wheat exports were 1.16 million tons (-37%), and barley exports were 866,000 tons (-43.5%).

Abiove has lowered its forecast for soybean production in Brazil for 2023/24 to 160.3 million tons (compared to 161.9 in the previous estimate and 158.7 in 2022/23). Soybean exports are expected to be 99.3 million tons (+1 compared to the previous estimate), and soymeal production will reach 41 million tons. The forecast for soymeal exports in 2023 is 22.2 million tons and 21.7 million tons in 2024. Soymeal stocks for 2023/24 are expected to be 9.2 million tons. Soyoil production estimate remains unchanged at 11 million tons, with exports at 1.45 million tons.

According to Oil World, global soyoil exports for 2023/24 may be lower than previous forecasts due to growing biodiesel consumption in South America and the United States. Brazil's biodiesel production is expected to be 7.3 million tons, and soyoil exports from the country for the season (October-September) will be the lowest in the last six years at 11.5 million tons (-0.5 compared to 2022/23 and -1.5 compared to 2021/22).

Harvesting of soybeans has begun in the largest production states of Brazil. In Mato Grosso, soil moisture is the lowest in the last 40 years, and yields are 7% below the previous year.

According to data from the Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires, 65% of wheat fields have been harvested in Argentina (+10% for the week and 78% more than the previous year), and corn has been planted on 58.6% of the planned areas (+6.7% compared to 2022/23). Precipitation is improving crop conditions.

In the first 11 months of 2023, feed production in China is increasing, but the consumption of soymeal for feed is decreasing by 1.5%.

According to CNGOIC data for the week of December 9-15, soybean processing in China reached 1.9 million tons (+1% compared to the previous week and -10% compared to the previous year). Soybean reserves in the country were 5.3 million tons (-3% for the week, +11% for the month, and +31% for the year). Soybean meal reserves are estimated at 880,000 tons (+6%, +21%, +138%), and soybean oil reserves are 930,000 tons (unchanged, +11%, +43%).

South Korean MFG has purchased 60,000 tons of soymeal from South America at a price of 475.98 USD/ton C&F with delivery in June.

Egypt's state-owned company GASC has received offers for the sale of soybean and sunseed oil with delivery in late March. Prices for soyoil range from 969 to 1,025 USD/ton, and for sunseed oil, they range from 1,010 to 1,300 USD/ton C&F.

Pakistan has not received offers for the sale of 110,000 tons of wheat at the January-February tender. Jordan has not purchased wheat at the tender for 120,000 tons.