Grain Highlights 21.02.2022

According to the forecast of Oil World, the world's soybean stocks will reach 83.2 million tons in 2021/22 (the lowest level for the last 6 years), which will be 16 million tons below the previous season.

- According to a preliminary forecast of Rusagrotrans, the grain production in Russia will reach 128 million tons in 2022, including wheat production of 81.4 - 83 million tons. This will be the third highest result in history after those of 2017 and 2020. In 2021/22, wheat exports are projected to reach 33.1 million tons.

- Over the week of February 14-20, 254,300 tons of wheat were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk (421,000 tons of wheat a week earlier and 49,000 tons of barley), including 195,000 tons for Iran, 33,000 tons for Sudan and 26,300 tons for Turkey.

- According to Oil World, the competitiveness of sunseed oil is now growing given the significant growth in soybean and palm oil prices. For the period of January - April, India could import 1 - 1.1 million tons of sunseed oil (0.64 a year earlier).

- According to the latest AAFC forecast, wheat exports from Canada will reach 15.4 million tons in 2021/22 (-1 compared to the previous estimate and -10.9 compared to the previous season). In 2022/23, the wheat production in the country is expected to reach 31.2 million tons (+44% compared to 2021/22). Wheat exports will be 21.3 million tons.

- According to AgRural data, as of February 17, 2022, the harvesting campaign of soybeans in Brazil was carried out on 33% of the areas (+9% for the week and 15% a year earlier). The sowing campaign of corn was completed on 53% of the planned areas (24% a year earlier).

- According to CAPECO forecasts, the soybean production in Paraguay will reach only 4 million tons in 2022 (with initial expectations of 10 million tons and 9.5 million tons in 2021).

- According to the forecast of Oil World, the world's soybean stocks will reach 83.2 million tons in 2021/22 (the lowest level for the last 6 years), which will be 16 million tons below the previous season. The soybean production in South America will reach 175.1 million tons (-27 million tons compared to 2020/21). The soybean production in Brazil will be 127 million tons (138.8), 40.5 million tons in Argentina (43.8), 5.3 million tons in Paraguay (9.54) and 2.3 million tons in Uruguay (1.85).

- According to information from traders, some soybean processing plants have stopped operating in China and their number is expected to increase in March. Last week, Chinese importers turned down orders for 10 to 12 batches of soybeans from Brazil. According to CNGOIC data, as of February 20, 2022, soybean stocks in China were 3.95 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons below the previous year's levels.