Grains Market Overview 23.06.2021

Yesterday, CBOT wheat, corn and soybean futures prices fell. In Paris, wheat futures prices decreased, corn prices fluctuated and rapeseed prices rose.

The currency pair EUR/USD rose to 1.1933. The price of US WTI crude oil decreased to 72.85 USD/barrel.

The international benchmark Brent was trading at more than $75 a barrel - it has not been that expensive for more than two years. The increase comes mainly due to the tight market and bullish demand forecasts.

CBOT
Chicago Contract USD/mt +/-
Wheat September 240.67 -3.67
Corn December 212.20 -7.09
Soybeans November 478.50 -6.25
Soymeal December 404.22 -9.04

 

EURONEXT
Paris Contract EUR/mt +/-
Wheat September 207.00 -0.25
Corn June 243.50 +0.50
Rapeseed August 494.50 +4.25

 

Yesterday, CBOT September wheat futures prices fell by 10 cents to close at $6.55 a bushel. Kansas is optimistic about good wheat yields. It rained over the weekend, which stopped the harvesting campaign on Monday, but on Tuesday it started raining again. The market reacted to the downgrade of the condition of spring wheat crops in the United States and spring wheat prices rose yesterday. News from Kansas continues to circulate about high wheat yields. Estimates of the condition of spring wheat are among the lowest in history. Wheat crops in Canada already need the next batch of rainfall. The previous ones had fallen 2-3 weeks ago. In general, world's wheat production looks excellent, which will limit price increases. Wheat will definitely not be a factor in price increases, and if something happens, it will be driven by the corn and soybean market.

Yesterday, Chicago December corn futures prices decreased by 18 cents to close at $5.39 a bushel. Corn prices fell after forecasts of heavy rainfall over the next 7 days, but only in the center and eastern part of the US Corn Belt. In the west it remains dry, where temperatures are currently above normal. Now, the market seems to be concentrating on the improving condition of corn crops in the east and ignoring the drought in the west. Corn prices in Dalian remained stable yesterday. Over the next three months, ethanol production in the United States and Brazil will decline due to high corn prices and negative producer margins.

Yesterday, Chicago November soybean futures prices decreased by 17 cents to close at $13.02 1/4 a bushel. Expectations of rainfall and the drop in wheat and corn futures prices suppressed soybeans. The models for the development of the markets in June show that when prices fall, traders must quickly liquidate their position because good productions are expected. As with corn, there are now drought signals in some parts of the United States. More attention is paid to technical analysis. Whatever we do, we cannot escape reality and the low rainfall, lack of deep humidity and high temperatures. Thus, we will continue to see high market volatility, well above the levels of previous years. Soybean prices in Dalian rose yesterday. Soymeal lowered its price and suppressed soybeans and the growth in soyoil price was very weak. Palm oil prices in Malaysia have been trying to stay stable in recent days. Reductions in export taxes in Indonesia will increase supply. Egypt's state-owned company GASC bought large volumes of soybeans for the second time in two weeks. Now 63,000 tons of soyoil and 10,500 tons of sunseed oil have been purchased. China's state-owned companies have begun massive purchases of soybeans as prices have fallen in recent days. In the third week of June, 582,000 tons of soybeans were exported from Brazil (606,000 tons a year earlier).

In the coming days we expect to see how much and where it will rain in the United States and the first yields of wheat and barley in the Black Sea region. Most analysts seem to be concentrating on growing corn areas in the United States to about 93-94 million acres and soybean areas to 88 million acres.