Grain Highlights 27.01.2023

In this season, the shortage of wheat in Pakistan reaches 2.4 million tons.

- Wheat areas in Russia will reach 29.05 million hectares in 2023 (29.468 in 2022). Areas with barley are estimated at 8,383 million hectares (7,996) and corn areas are expected to reach 2,953 million hectares (2,841).

- From February 1, 2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,365.3 rubles/ton (4,283.2 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 3,174.3 rubles/ton (3,083.7) and the export tax on corn will be 1,186.2 rubles/ton (886.5).

- As of 26.01.2023, 90% of the corn areas in Ukraine were harvested, 25.2 million tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 6.65 tons/hectare.

- In 2022/23, Ukraine can export 4.1 million tons of sunseed oil. Production will reach 4.35 million tons, and domestic consumption is expected at 400,000 tons.

- As of January 27, 2023, 25,991 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine (37,592 a year earlier), including 3.245 million tons in January (5.119). Exported wheat reached 9,401 million tons (16,799), barley exports were 1,799 million tons (5,434) and corn exports were 14,689 million tons (14,946).

- Over the period of July - November 2022, the export of barley from Kazakhstan was 462,650 tons (131,140 in 2021). Main customers were Iran with 237,460 tons and China with 121,260 tons. Barley production reached 3.23 million tons, which is the lowest level since 2016. Exports for the whole of 2022/23 will reach 0.8 million tons.

- According to Deral's forecast, the 2022/23 soybean production in the Brazilian state of Parana will be 21.4 million tons (-0.7 compared to the previous estimate). The decline is due to drought, and the harvesting campaign has already started.

- At the end of the previous week, farmers in Argentina had sold 80.6% of their 2021/22 soybean crop (82.6% a year earlier). Over the week of January 12-18, sales reached 42,000 tons, the lowest weekly level for recent months. Sales of corn from the 2021/22 crop were 76.3% (78.5), and sales of wheat from the 2022/23 crop were 51.8%.

- In the coming days, significant areas of Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay will receive precipitation, which is currently estimated to be between 10 and 75 l/sq.m.

- In 2023, rice production in Indonesia is expected to reach 54.5 million tons - unchanged from 2022, according to data from the country's Ministry of Agriculture. The corn production is projected at 23.05 million tons (grain with moisture 27%).

- The export tax on palm oil exports from Malaysia remains at 8% in February. In January, exports decreased.

- In January, India's sunseed oil imports will reach a record 473,000 tons, almost three times the monthly average, linked to the intention of Ukraine and Russia to reduce their stocks. Another point is the discount in the price of sunseed oil compared to other competing products, with the difference being the largest for the last 9 months – 100 USD/ton compared to soyoil. Till March 2024, India will import sunseed oil at zero duty.

- In this season, the shortage of wheat in Pakistan reaches 2.4 million tons. The main reason is the floods in the country in the summer and autumn of 2022. The foreign exchange reserves of the country's central bank have dropped significantly to only 4 billion USD. The country is one of the largest producers of wheat in the world, and part of the production is exported under normal conditions.

- Egypt will sign a long-term contract with Germany for the supply of wheat.

- Iraq has bought 150,000 tons of milling wheat from Australia at USD 445/ton C&F and delivery in April.