The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.0356, while the price of US WTI light crude oil rose to $71.72 per barrel.

Oil prices increased on Tuesday after data showed that manufacturing activity in China grew in December. However, prices are on track to end a second consecutive year lower due to demand concerns in major consuming countries. Manufacturing activity in China expanded for the third consecutive month in December, albeit at a slower pace, according to an official survey released Tuesday. The report suggests that new, rapid stimulus measures are helping to support the world's second-largest economy.

While weak long-term demand prospects weighed on prices, they could find short-term support from declining U.S. crude oil inventories, which are expected to have shrunk by about 3 million barrels last week. In the coming year, investors' focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Earlier this month, the central bank forecasted only two rate cuts, down from four predicted in September. The revision reflects persistently high inflation.

On the last day of 2024, grain markets were on the rise. We hope this trend continues throughout 2025. Today is New Year's Day, and everyone will be taking a break.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 3 1/4 cents to $5.51 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures in both Chicago and Paris increased. Weather forecasts for the US Wheat Belt predict mixed precipitation and lower temperatures. For the week ending December 26, 2024, U.S. wheat export inspections amounted to 337,685 tons (compared to 405,923 the previous week and 276,433 a year earlier), with total season exports at 12.28 million tons (up from 9.66 million). Jordan is seeking to purchase 120,000 tons of wheat for February delivery. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its forecast for Argentina’s wheat production at 18.6 million tons. Meanwhile, IKAR reported that last week the FOB price of Russian milling wheat rose by 3 USD/ton to 237 USD/ton.

CBOT March corn futures increased by 6 1/4 cents to $4.58 1/2 per bushel yesterday, with corn prices increasing in both Chicago and Paris. US ethanol production data will be released on Thursday, with weekly export sales data to follow on Friday. Weekly U.S. corn export inspections reached 878,380 tons (compared to 1,146,185 the previous week and 569,857 a year earlier), with season totals at 15.36 million tons (up from 11.95 million). From January to November, China’s corn imports were 13.3 million tons, down 39.9% from the same period in 2023. October imports were just 251,000 tons (-87.7% compared to October 2023), the lowest level since December 2019. December imports are also expected to be weak, with a total 2024 decrease of 13 million tons compared to 2023.

Chicago March soybean futures went up by 18 3/4 cents to $10.10 1/2 per bushel yesterday, with gains across the Chicago soybean complex. The nearest rapeseed contracts in Paris and canola in Canada declined, while later contracts rose. In October, U.S. biodiesel production utilized 1.227 million gallons of soyoil—the highest level since June and the third-highest on record. Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1,569,439 tons (compared to 1,773,908 the previous week and 970,385 a year earlier). On Monday, the USDA reported a private export sale of 23,000 tons of soyoil to India.

Indonesia’s transition from B35 to B40 biodiesel is causing financial challenges across the supply chain. This shift has led to an increase in palm oil prices. Authorities have announced subsidies funded by palm oil export revenues, though the significant price rise will require substantial financial resources and likely higher export duties. On global markets, palm oil faces competition from soybean and other oils. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter, directly influences the entire oilseeds sector. These changes have driven up sunseed oil prices, which in turn increased sunseed prices in recent months.

Dry weather in Argentina is fueling price growth for corn and soybeans. While conditions are not critically dry, rainfall over the past 20 days has been limited and insufficient, with crops increasingly in need of moisture. Rainfall in southern Brazil is expected to be below normal, while central and northern regions will experience typical rainy season levels.

Chinese authorities have approved several gene-edited varieties of wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, and cotton. Gene editing involves altering an organism's genes without introducing foreign DNA, as is done with genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Some scientists believe the impact of gene editing on consumers is less significant than that of genetic modification.