Chicago wheat futures for March 2025 opened Tuesday at $5.79 1/2 per bushel, showing a slight recovery of +2 1/2 cents after starting the week with early losses. The wheat market remains under pressure from improving global supply, but concerns persist over dry conditions in the U.S. Plains and shifting trade flows in Russia and Kazakhstan. U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ending February 6 surged 31.58% from last year, with strong shipments to the Philippines, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico. However, Russian wheat exports remain near record levels for the season, despite a forecasted slowdown in February.
Corn futures for March 2025 started Tuesday at $4.91 1/2 per bushel, with a modest early gain of +1/2 cent following Monday’s strong performance. U.S. export inspections for corn rose 6.48% week-over-week, with Mexico, Japan, and South Korea leading as key buyers. Meanwhile, Brazil’s January corn exports fell to a four-year low, reflecting weaker global demand. The upcoming WASDE report is expected to show a reduction in U.S. ending stocks and lower production forecasts for both Brazil and Argentina due to adverse weather conditions. Traders are also closely watching the impact of dry conditions in Argentina's Pampas region, which could further tighten South American supply.
Soybean futures for March 2025 opened at $10.49 1/2 per bushel, unchanged from the previous session. The market is facing mixed signals, with U.S. soybean export inspections slightly down for the week but still heavily reliant on Chinese demand. Brazil’s January soybean exports plummeted 62.43% year-over-year, and the country’s harvest pace remains significantly behind last year. Analysts expect today’s WASDE report to show a reduction in U.S. soybean ending stocks, with Argentina’s production forecast likely to be cut due to persistent drought conditions. However, Brazil’s production estimates are slightly improved, helping to offset potential supply concerns.
The broader grain market is being influenced by several key developments that could shape today's trading session and beyond.
China’s demand for corn and soybeans has picked up following the Lunar New Year, driven by strong crushing margins and rising soymeal and soyoil prices. The Chinese government has also been boosting domestic corn purchases while limiting imports to stabilize local prices and protect farmers. This shift in policy could impact global trade flows, particularly for U.S. and Brazilian exports.
U.S. grain exports are showing signs of strength, with wheat shipments more than doubling week-over-week and corn exports nearly 50% higher than the same period last year. Soybean exports, however, remain weaker than a year ago, largely due to slower Chinese buying. The WASDE report will be closely watched for any changes in U.S. ending stocks and global supply projections.
In Russia, wheat exports are projected to reach 2.4-2.5 million tons in February, marking a decline from January but still maintaining record-high seasonal levels. The Russian Agriculture Ministry has distributed its wheat export quota for 2025, with major traders such as Grain Gates and Aston receiving significant allocations. The country remains a dominant force in the global wheat market, and any shifts in Russian policy or production forecasts could impact prices worldwide.
Kazakhstan has resolved its grain transit issues with Russia, allowing shipments to flow freely to European and North African markets. The resolution of this dispute removes a major bottleneck for Kazakh grain exports, which could lead to increased competition for Black Sea wheat in international markets.
In South America, weather remains a critical factor. Argentina is experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures across key growing regions, with dry conditions in the south and central Pampas posing risks to corn and soybean yields. Conversely, heavy rains in northern Argentina could benefit late-season crops. Brazil is also seeing above-normal rainfall in its northern and far southern regions, while drier weather in the Center-West is helping first-corn harvesting and second-corn planting.
Brazil’s wheat market remains firm, with domestic prices holding strong due to steady exports. January wheat exports reached 551.68 thousand tons, while imports were at a multi-year high. The tight domestic supply of high-quality wheat is driving strong demand for imports, despite the local currency fluctuations.
French wheat production is set for a rebound, with the country’s winter soft wheat area increasing 10% year-over-year following last year’s historically low crop. Improved weather conditions and higher acreage could lead to increased European wheat supplies, putting additional pressure on global prices.
As today’s trading session unfolds, all eyes will be on the WASDE report and its implications for global supply and demand. The combination of shifting trade policies, weather concerns, and fluctuating export trends will continue to shape grain market movements in the days ahead.