The EUR/USD currency pair increased to 1.0461. The price of US WTI light crude oil rose to 70.70 USD per barrel.

Chicago wheat futures posted notable losses, with the May 2025 contract closing at $5.93 1/2 per bushel, down 10 1/2 cents. Weakness in the wheat market was attributed to sluggish export demand despite a weekly increase in U.S. wheat shipments. Kansas City HRW wheat also saw declines, dropping 12 to 13 cents on the session, while Minneapolis spring wheat fell 10 to 11 cents. Export inspections for the week showed U.S. wheat shipments at 375,546 metric tons, up over 50% from the prior week but still trailing last year's levels by 22%. Mexico and South Korea were the largest destinations. Meanwhile, Kansas wheat crop conditions improved slightly, with Texas ratings rising by 4% from the previous week, though Oklahoma ratings saw a decline. The weather outlook suggests a mostly dry week ahead for the Plains, limiting moisture recovery.

Corn futures followed wheat lower, with the May 2025 contract closing at $4.97 per bushel, down 8 cents. The market came under pressure as traders reacted to a sharp decline in U.S. export inspections, which totaled 1.134 million metric tons, a 30% drop from the previous week. Mexico remained the top destination, followed by Colombia and Japan. Brazilian planting progress was also closely watched, with AgRural estimating the country’s second corn crop at 64% planted, in line with the five-year average. Meanwhile, U.S. planting estimates for the upcoming season remained in focus, with early projections suggesting a rise to 93.5 million acres, up 3 million from the previous year. Market participants remain cautious about the impact of potential production increases on future price trends.

Soybean futures ended lower as well, with the May 2025 contract closing at $10.47 1/2 per bushel, down 9 3/4 cents. Weakness extended to the entire soy complex, with soymeal futures down $1.20 to $3.00 per ton and soyoil falling 79 to 111 points. U.S. soybean export inspections for the week totaled 858,679 metric tons, down 19% from the same week last year but up 18% from the prior week. China remained the largest destination, followed by Mexico. In South America, Brazil's soybean harvest reached 39% complete, slightly trailing last year's pace, while production estimates were trimmed by 2.8 million metric tons to 168.2 million metric tons. The uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s final harvest numbers continues to influence global supply expectations.

Key Global Developments Affecting the Grain Market:

U.S. grain exports faced pressure, with soybean shipments declining while wheat and corn exports showed mixed trends. Mexico remained the leading buyer for U.S. wheat and corn, while China continued to dominate soybean purchases. However, overall export commitments remain behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections.

India's palm oil imports are expected to decline in favor of soyoil and sunflower oil due to rising costs, a shift that could support U.S. soyoil futures. This trend is driven by supply disruptions in Indonesia and Malaysia, where flooding has tightened palm oil availability. Market analysts predict that palm oil will regain competitiveness within two months, potentially shifting demand dynamics again.

In South America, Argentina’s soybean crop conditions have improved following weeks of much-needed rainfall. The Rosario Grain Exchange reported that recent precipitation helped stabilize yield losses, improving outlooks for the remainder of the growing season. However, variability in yields remains significant, with wide-ranging production expectations.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) confirmed that it will move forward with an April fuel policy change aimed at supporting ethanol demand. The decision maintains an April 28 implementation date for eliminating volatility waivers for E10 gasoline, a shift expected to boost ethanol blending and corn demand. While some refiners warn of potential fuel supply disruptions, biofuel advocates see the move as a positive step for U.S. corn farmers.

In Brazil, logistics giant Rumo anticipates a significant increase in crop shipments by 2026, driven by infrastructure improvements at the port of Santos. The expansion could add 10 million metric tons of export capacity, providing additional market support for Brazilian grains.

The latest crop planting estimates for the U.S. indicate potential acreage shifts, with corn plantings projected at 93.5 million acres, soybeans at 84.4 million acres, and wheat at 46.7 million acres. These figures suggest an increase in corn production but potential declines in wheat and soybeans. Analysts will be watching upcoming USDA reports for confirmation of these trends.

Vietnam has emerged as a major agricultural trade partner for Argentina, now accounting for half of the country's corn and soybean meal exports to Southeast Asia. With demand for animal feed rising in the region, Argentina is expected to increase shipments in the coming years.

China has outlined new initiatives to boost rural financing and grain production as part of its "No. 1 Central Document" on agricultural policy. The plan includes increased investment in infrastructure and financial support for corn and soybean producers. These measures aim to enhance domestic food security while limiting reliance on imports.

Malaysia has ruled out increasing its biodiesel blend mandate from 10% to 20% due to high infrastructure costs. This decision contrasts with Indonesia's ongoing expansion of its biodiesel program, which has contributed to tighter palm oil supplies.

Looking ahead, market participants remain focused on export trends, South American harvest progress, and upcoming U.S. planting estimates. Weather conditions in key growing regions will also play a critical role in shaping price movements in the coming weeks.