Wheat futures extended their decline, with May 2025 CBOT wheat closing at $5.55 3/4 per bushel, down 6 3/4 cents. The selloff deepened for the week, as Chicago SRW contracts lost 53 cents (-8.98%), Kansas City HRW dropped 51 cents (-8.37%), and Minneapolis spring wheat declined by 49 1/2 cents (-7.84%). The wheat market struggled against sluggish export sales, with total U.S. commitments at 20.144 million metric tons, representing 87% of USDA’s export forecast and falling behind the 95% average pace. FranceAgriMer estimated the French soft wheat crop at 73% good-to-excellent, down from 74% the previous week, while durum wheat ratings also slipped to 82% good-to-excellent.

Corn futures also ended lower, with May 2025 corn closing at $4.69 1/2 per bushel, down 11 1/2 cents. The market continued its weekly selloff, with March corn losing 37 3/4 cents (-7.68%). U.S. export sales for the 2024/25 crop year reached 48.664 million metric tons, covering 78% of USDA’s annual projection and outpacing the five-year average of 76%. However, fund traders aggressively reduced their long positions, with managed money trimming its net long position by 16,079 contracts. Meanwhile, the second corn crop planting in Brazil has been delayed, raising concerns about yield potential amid dry conditions.

Soybeans followed the downward trend, with May 2025 soybeans closing at $10.25 3/4 per bushel, down 11 1/2 cents. The soybean complex was under pressure, with March soybeans dropping 28 cents (-2.69%) on the week. USDA reported a private export sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil, but overall sales remained weak. Total marketing year commitments for soybeans reached 44.147 million metric tons, or 89% of USDA’s forecast, while actual shipments totaled 37.009 million metric tons, representing 75% of the agency’s projection. The market also braced for the upcoming Fats & Oils report, with analysts expecting January crush data to show 211.1 million bushels processed and soybean oil stocks at 1.761 billion pounds.

The global grain market remains under pressure from various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The U.S. agricultural trade deficit has reached a record $49 billion, as inbound shipments of food products such as avocados, coffee, and sugar outpace declining exports of traditional crops like wheat, corn, and soybeans. Russia and Brazil continue to dominate the global grain trade, with Russia surpassing the U.S. as the world’s top wheat exporter and Brazil taking the lead in corn, cotton, and soybean exports.

President Donald Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, set to take effect on March 4, continue to loom over the markets, with potential trade disruptions adding to price volatility. Corn export sales fell to 923,000 metric tons from 1.45 million the previous week, while soybean sales dropped to 415,000 metric tons from 500,000. Wheat sales were particularly weak at 274,000 metric tons, down from 631,000 in the prior week. China remained the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, purchasing 202,000 metric tons, while Mexico led in corn purchases at 379,000 metric tons.

Weather conditions remain a key focus for traders, with the U.S. Midwest expecting continued warmth and rainfall through March, which could support soil moisture for spring plantings. However, Argentina faces potential flooding risks due to excessive precipitation, while Brazil remains dry in key soybean and corn-growing regions. The ongoing dryness in the Black Sea region is a growing concern, with weak rains and moisture deficits posing risks to winter wheat crops in Ukraine and Russia.

Ukraine’s grain exports have declined slightly year-over-year, reaching nearly 29 million metric tons since July 1, a 1% drop compared to the previous season. February exports totaled 3.2 million metric tons, marking a sharp 40% decline from last year. Despite the drop, wheat exports rose 3% year-over-year to 11.9 million metric tons, while corn shipments fell by 9% to 14.4 million metric tons.

In Russia, IKAR revised its wheat export forecast downward by 500,000 metric tons to 42.5 million metric tons, citing currency fluctuations and weaker farmer sentiment. The Russian wheat harvest outlook was also trimmed to a range of 77-81 million metric tons, down from a prior forecast of 77-87 million metric tons.

Meanwhile, the European Commission lowered its total grain production forecast for the 2024/25 season to 255.2 million metric tons, with slight reductions in wheat, barley, and corn estimates. French soft wheat crop conditions remained stable, with 73% rated good-to-excellent as of February 24.

On the oilseed front, Indonesia lowered its crude palm oil reference price for March to $954.50 per metric ton, which will maintain the export tax at $124 per metric ton. Malaysia’s palm oil exports for February declined 10.95% month-over-month, with total shipments at 1.062 million metric tons.

U.S. barge shipments of grains on the Mississippi River also declined, with corn shipments dropping 41% week-over-week and soybean shipments falling 38.2%. Lower river levels continue to challenge logistical flows for U.S. grain exports.

With global trade shifts, fluctuating weather patterns, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the grain markets face continued volatility as traders assess supply-demand fundamentals in the weeks ahead.