Grain Highlights 03.12.2021

The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia is likely to limit wheat exports to 9 million tons over the period of 15.02 - 30.06.2021.

- The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia is likely to limit wheat exports to 9 million tons over the period of 15.02 - 30.06.2021. The export of barley, corn and rye will be limited to 5 million tons. During the period 01.07 - 25.11.2021, 18 million tons of grain were exported from the country (-24.1% compared to the previous year), including wheat exports of 15.3 million tons (-23.1%).

- According to preliminary estimates, 2.95 million tons of wheat were exported from Russia in November, which is lower than the average level for the last five years. The average export for November over the period of 2016-2020 was 3.5 million tons. In November 2020, a record 4.4 million tons was reached. In December 2021, exports are expected to increase to 3.6 - 3.8 million tons (4.15 in December 2020). The excellent wheat production in Australia and the record production in Argentina will cool the market in the coming months.

- In January 2022, the export tax on sunseed oil from Russia will increase to 280.8 USD/ton (276.7 in December, 194.5 in November, 227.2 in October and 169.9 in September).

- In the week starting on 08.12.2021, the export tax on Russian wheat will increase to 84.9 USD/ton (80.8 a week earlier). The export tax on corn is expected at 54.3 USD/ton (unchanged) and the export tax on barley will be 75.1 USD/ton (68.3).

- According to FranceAgriMer, as of November 29, 2021, 99% of the corn areas in France have been harvested (+2% per week). The sowing campaign of winter wheat has been completed on 99% of the planned areas (+2%) and 99% of the crops are in good and excellent condition. Durum was sown on 88% of the planned areas (+9%).

- Yesterday, commodity funds in Chicago were net buyers of 7,500 contracts of corn, 8,500 contracts of soybeans and 13,000 contracts of wheat.

- According to Abitrigo, wheat imports in Brazil rose to 517,500 tons in October from 447,500 tons in September. Deliveries from Argentina are 474,800 tons (391,300). 20,900 tons were imported from Uruguay (13,000), 5,100 tons from Paraguay (3,500) and 16,500 tons from the United States. Over the period of January - October, imports reached a total of 5.39 million tons (5.47), including 4.65 million tons from Argentina .

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of December 1, 2021, 90% of corn crops are in good and excellent condition in Argentina (34% a year earlier). 2.27 million hectares of corn from the new crop have been sown, which is 31.1% of the planned areas. The sowing campaign of sunseed has been completed and 41% of the crops are in good and excellent condition, compared to 35% a week earlier. Soybeans are sown on 46% of the planned areas and 88% of the crops (67%) are in good and excellent condition. Wheat has been harvested on 45% of the areas and 7.9 million tons were harvested.

- In their December report, FAO analysts lowered their forecast for the world's grain production in 2021/22 by 2.1 million tons to 2,791 million tons, which is +19.2 million tons more than 2020/21. The wheat production is projected at 769.6 million tons (770.4 and 776.5). The production of fodder grain will be 1,503 million tons (1,504 and 1,481). The ending stocks of wheat are estimated at 284.7 million tons (+2.6 and 289.5) and ending corn stocks are estimated at 349.7 million tons (+0.1 and 351). During the season, the world's grain trade will be 480.3 million tons (+2.2 and +3.6), including 193.3 million tons of wheat (+1) and 235.6 million tons of fodder crops (+1.1).