Grain Highlights 04.03.2022

Over the past week, demand for wheat from the EU has grown significantly given the suspension of exports from Russia and Ukraine. The most active in sales are Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, Poland.

- According to ProZerno's forecast, grain exports from Russia will be 35 million tons in 2021/22 (42 in the previous estimate), including 27 million tons of wheat (23 exported so far). The ending grain stocks in the country will be 19 - 20 million tons (12 - 13), including ending wheat stocks 13.3 million tons (7.3). In 2020/21, grain exports from Russia were 49 million tons, including wheat exports of 38.4 million tons.

- According to the authorities in Ukraine, as of 04.03.2022, there are no critical damages in the ports in the country. About 80 foreign ships are waiting to sail.

- Over the past week, demand for wheat from the EU has grown significantly given the suspension of exports from Russia and Ukraine. The most active in sales are Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, Poland. Ukraine's ports have been closed by Russia, and there are no people willing to trade with Russia. During the week, the EU sold more than 1 million tons of wheat to the Middle East and North Africa. Demand for wheat from Germany is so high that exports are needed through the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.

- According to FranceAgriMer, as of 28 February 2002, 90% of winter barley crops (92% a week earlier and 84% last year) were in good and excellent condition in France, and 9% in fair condition (7% and 3%). 93% (93% and 88%) of winter wheat crops are in good and excellent condition. The sowing of spring barley was carried out on 36% of the planned areas (+8% for the week and 47% last year).

- On Thursday, commodity funds in Chicago were net buyers of 25,000 contracts of corn, 6,000 contracts of soybeans and 12,500 contracts of wheat.

- Analysts from StoneX have lowered their forecast for the Brazilian soybean production to 121.17 million tons, which is 4.2% below the February forecast.

- CNGOIC forecasts that the corn consumption in 2021/22 in China will be 283.1 million tons (-2 compared to the previous estimate and 276 in 2020/21). Soybean consumption will be 114.4 million tons (-1.8 and -2.8) and soybean imports 96 million tons (-4 and -3.8).

- According to ABS, 2.77 million tons of wheat were exported from Australia in January (2.18 in December). The largest customers were China with 687,000 tons, Indonesia with 460,800 tons and the Philippines with 345,100 tons. Exports are expected to reach 3 million tons in February.

- Demand for wheat and corn for export from India has been very strong in recent days, and at the same time prices are rising. Russia's and Ukraine's export suspension are wreaking havoc in the country.

- Bangladesh is looking to buy 50,000 tons of wheat of any origin.

- Turkey has stopped exporting vegetable oils, flour, wheat and corn.

- Turkey has confirmed the purchase of 285,000 tons of milled wheat with protein 12.5 - 13.5%. The imported wheat is priced at 439 - 449 USD/ton C&F.

- Algeria allows imports of wheat from France due to limited supplies from the Black Sea region.