Grain Highlights 09.05.2022

SovEcon has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Russia in 2021/22 by 0.2 million tons to 34.1 million tons.

- SovEcon has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Russia in 2021/22 by 0.2 million tons to 34.1 million tons. In April, exports amounted to 2.3 million tons (+69% compared to April 2021). Over May-June, exports are expected to fall given the export quotas. The quota will not take place in July and strong export growth is expected. For 2022/23, wheat exports are estimated at 41 million tons.

- The indicative prices of Ukrainian wheat of the new crop increased last week to 325 - 350 USD/ton FOB for wheat with 12.5% protein ​​and 320 - 345 USD/ton FOB for wheat with 11.5% protein. 

- On Friday, commodity funds in Chicago were net sellers of 12,500 contracts of corn and 12,000 contracts of soybeans and net buyers of 1,000 contracts of wheat.

- According to Abitrigo, throughout January-March, wheat imports in Brazil reached 1.52 million tons (-11% compared to 2021 or 1.7 million tons). 1.38 million tons came from Argentina, 94,900 tons from Uruguay, 70,480 tons from Paraguay and 45,900 tons from the United States. In March alone, imports amounted to 518,800 tons (498,700 in February and 611,050 in March 2021).

- According to the forecast of Imea, soybean areas in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso will increase by 2.5% in 2022/23 compared to 2021/22 to 11.13 million tons. Given the high prices of fertilizers, yields are expected to fall by 1.2% and the production is projected at 39.48 million tons.

- In April, China imported 8.08 million tons of soybeans, which is 27% more than in March - 6.35 million tons and 7.45 million tons in April 2021. Over January - March, imports reached 28.36 million tons (-0.8%). Local analysts expect imports of 9.4 million tons in May.

- According to Oil World, a record 858,000 tons of canola were exported from Australia in March (609,000 tons in February and 749,000 tons in March 2021). Over the period of January - March, exports reached 0.7 million tons (+44%). The largest buyers were the EU with 443,000 tons (443,000 and 537,000), the United Kingdom with 56,000 tons (0 and 61,000), Japan with 57,000 tons (57,000 and 1,000) and the UAE with 52,000 tons (51,000 and 55,000).

- In April, Malaysia's palm oil stocks increased for the first time in six months due to increased production. At the end of the month, stocks reached 1.55 million tons (+5.2% for the month) and the production was 1.48 million tons (+4.9%). Exports decreased by 5.6% to 1.2 million tons and imports decreased by 95,000 tons (+12%).