Grain Highlights 05.12.2022

In 2022/23, wheat exports from Argentina will reach 6.5 million tons, which is the lowest result for the last 8 years, according to the forecast of the Rosario Grain Exchange.

- In November, 2,049 million tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, including 1.942 million tons of wheat, 90,800 tons of barley and 15,300 tons of peas. The biggest buyers were Turkey with 515,000 tons, Egypt with 271,000 tons and Sudan with 209,000 tons.

- According to Rosstat data, the area with all crops in Russia was over 82 million hectares in 2022, which is 2.6% more than in 2021. The area with cereal crops was 47 million hectares (+1%), including wheat areas of 29.5 million hectares (+2.4%) and barley areas of 8 million hectares (-3.6%).

- According to Rosstat data, as of November 1, 2022, grain stocks in Russian agricultural organizations were 40.29 million tons (+47.7% compared to the previous year), including wheat stocks of 28.9 million tons (+50%).

- Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for the 2022/23 EU oilseed production. Rapeseed production will be 19.47 million tons (+14.5% compared to 2021/22), sunseed production will reach 8.99 million tons (9.18) and soybean production is projected at 2.39 million tons (-11%).

- According to an estimate by Statistics Canada, wheat production in Canada will reach 33.8 million tons in 2022 (34.7 in the September forecast and +52% compared to 2021/22), including spring wheat production of 25.7 million tons and durum wheat production of 5.4 million tons. The canola production is estimated at 18.2 million tons (19.1 and +32%).

- In 2022/23, wheat exports from Argentina will reach 6.5 million tons, which is the lowest result for the last 8 years, according to the forecast of the Rosario Grain Exchange. It is expected that the country's export potential will be exhausted already in February. In 2021/22, the production was 22.1 million tons, and the export was 14.5 million tons. Now the production will be 11.8 million tons. Contracts have already been concluded for the purchase of 9 million tons of wheat for export, which most likely will not be completely fulfilled.

- According to USDA data, soybean areas in Paraguay will be 3.45 million hectares in 2022/23 (3.3 in 2021/22). Soybean production will reach 10 million tons (4.2). Contracts have already been concluded for the sale of 10-20% of the new crop.

- According to ABARE's forecast, the grain production in Australia will reach 62 million tons in the current season, which is the second highest result in history. The wheat production will reach a new record of 36.6 million tons, which is 1% more than the previous highest result of 2021/22. The barley production is estimated at 13.4 million tons (fourth result in history), and the rapeseed production is expected to reach 7.3 million tons - a new record. Spring crops will drop by 9% due to flooding in the country.

- In November, palm oil stocks in Malaysia decreased by 0.47% to 2.39 million tons. Palm oil production was 1.72 million tons (-5%), and palm oil exports were 1.55 million tons (+3%).

- The consulting company Sunseedman forecasts sunseed production in Turkey in 2022/23 at the level of 2 million tons, which is 475,000 tons more than in 2021/22. Sunseed imports are projected to reach 750,000 tons (475,000). Imports of sunseed oil will fall to 805,000 tons (1 million tons a year earlier), and exports will rise to 650,000 tons (+34%).

- Pakistan has approved import of 450,000 tons of wheat from Russia at 372 USD/ton C&F.