Grain Highlights 07.09.2023

According to Conab's forecast, in 2022/23, grain and oilseed production in Brazil will be 322.7 million tons (+0.8% compared to the previous estimate and 272.6 million tons in 2021/22).

In the first two months of the 2023/24 season, the largest buyer of Russian wheat is Egypt with 1.28 million tons, followed by Turkey with 1.085 million tons, Algeria with 790,000 tons, Bangladesh with 651,000 tons, and Saudi Arabia with 648,000 tons. The largest overall buyers of wheat, corn, and barley are Saudi Arabia with 1.323 million tons, Egypt with 1.284 million tons, Turkey with 1.283 million tons, Iran with 1.127 million tons, and Libya with 878,000 tons.

As of September 6, 2023, Russia has harvested 112 million tons of grain. Winter crops for the 2023/24 crop season have been sown on 20 million hectares.

According to data from the European Commission, from the beginning of the season until September 3, 2023, the EU has delivered 519,800 tons of rapeseed (1.03 million tons in 2022/23), including 243,500 tons from Ukraine (-45%), 125,100 tons from Moldova (+270%), and 103,000 tons from Australia (-79%).

During the period from August 28 to September 3, 2023, the EU exported 266,600 tons of wheat (443,400 tons the previous week), according to the European Commission's estimate. Since the beginning of the 2023/24 season, exports have reached 5.03 million tons (7.4), including 1.05 million tons to Morocco, 456,700 tons to Algeria, 430,000 tons to Nigeria, 421,000 tons to South Korea, and 309,600 tons to South Africa. Durum wheat exports are 28,000 tons (116,300), and barley exports are 1.4 million tons (-27%).

In the last week of August, soybean exports from the United States were 379,000 tons (500,000 tons the previous year), according to Oil World's estimate. Total exports for 2022/23 are 52.25 million tons (-4.7%), the lowest level in the last three years. China's exports are 31.2 million tons (29.9), Egypt's are 1.02 million tons (3.9), Mexico's are 4.5 million tons (5.3), Taiwan's are 1.2 million tons (1.5), and Pakistan's are 206,000 tons (643,000). Exports are expected to decrease by another 6 million tons in 2023/24.

Yesterday, Chicago commodity funds were net buyers of 5,000 wheat contracts and 5,000 soybean contracts, while they were net sellers of 500 corn contracts.

According to Conab's forecast, in 2022/23, grain and oilseed production in Brazil will be 322.7 million tons (+0.8% compared to the previous estimate and 272.6 million tons in 2021/22). Corn production is expected to reach 129.9 million tons (+1.5% and 16.6%), with exports of 50 million tons (46.6 in 2021/22) and ending corn stocks are estimated at 12.2 million tons (+1.7% and +4.2). Soybean production will be 154.6 million tons (unchanged and +23.1%), with exports of 96.9 million tons (+1.3% and +23.1%) and ending soybean stocks are estimated at 5.8 million tons (7.1 and 4.7). Wheat production will be a record 10.9 million tons (+3.9% and 10.5), imports will be 5 million tons (-0.2 and 4.5), exports will be 2.6 million tons, nearly unchanged from 2021/22, and ending wheat stocks are projected at 1.3 million tons (+0.1 and +0.6).

In 2022/23 (ending on October 31, 2023), palm oil imports into India will increase by 26% to record levels. In September and October, imports will reach 1.8 million tons, with a total for the season of 10 million tons, a new record (surpassing the current record of 2014/15). In the first 10 months of the season, vegetable oil deliveries reached 14 million tons, including 8.2 million tons of palm oil, 3.2 million tons of soyoil, and 2.5 million tons of sunseed oil.

In August, palm oil reserves in Malaysia increased for the fourth consecutive month to 1.89 million tons (+9.2% compared to July). Production for the month was 1.72 million tons (+6.8%), the highest level since November 2022, while exports were 1.33 million tons (-1.7%).