Grain Higlights 18.10.2023

Russia and China have signed a contract for the supply of 70 million tons of grains and oilseeds valued at 25.7 billion USD.

Russia and China have signed a contract for the supply of 70 million tons of grains and oilseeds valued at 25.7 billion USD. The contract is set to be executed over 12 years, and the delivery route will be overland.

SovEcon has revised its forecast for the Russian wheat production in 2023/24, lowering it from 91.6 million tons to 91.4 million tons. The production estimate in Siberia has been reduced by 0.5 million tons to 8.7 million tons, and around the Ural region by 0.2 million tons to 3.9 million tons. There is an increase in the Volga region, up by 0.4 million tons to 18.6 million tons.

From the beginning of the season up to October 18, 2023, Ukraine has exported 7.801 million tons of grain (compared to 11.526 million tons the previous year), including 1.048 million tons in October (compared to 2.834 million tons). The exports consist of 3.992 million tons of wheat (658,000 tons of barley, 654,000 tons of corn).

From the beginning of the season up to October 15, 2023, the EU has exported 8.81 million tons of soft wheat (a decrease of 22% compared to 2022/23) and 2.31 million tons of barley (a decrease of 10%). The leading wheat exporters are Romania with 2.48 million tons, France with 1.78 million tons, Poland with 1.58 million tons, Bulgaria with 937,000 tons, and Lithuania with 763,000 tons. Major wheat buyers include Morocco with 1.53 million tons, Nigeria with 960,000 tons, Algeria with 783,000 tons, South Africa with 543,000 tons, and South Korea with 452,000 tons.

Since the beginning of September, China has purchased over 2.5 million tons of wheat for delivery from November to December, including at least 1.8 million tons from France. Some operators believe that the volume of wheat from France may be even higher. China is actively buying both new and old wheat crop from Australia, with 2 million tons already procured, of which 1 million tons have been delivered, and an additional 0.5 million tons are expected to be delivered by the end of November.

South Korean company NOFI has purchased 65,000 tons of corn at a price of 252.39 USD/ton with delivery scheduled until January 15, 2024, from Cargill.

The Indian government will increase the procurement price of new wheat crop by 7% compared to the previous season.

Taiwanese company MFIG has likely purchased 65,000 tons of feed corn, most probably from Brazil, with delivery between December and January.

The Algerian state company ONAB has announced a tender for the purchase of 105,000 tons of feed corn with delivery scheduled for November 1-15. The previous tender was canceled.