Grain Highlights 25.10.2023

A delegation representing soybean importers from China, during their visit to the United States, signed an agreement with the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

From November 1, 2023, the export tax on Russian sunseed oil continues to be zero, as it has been for the past five months. The export tax on sunseed meal will be 5,773.1 rubles per ton (compared to 7,519.6 in September).

Due to drought in some parts of the EU, MARS has lowered their forecast for the average corn yield in 2023/24 to 7.13 tons per hectare (a 21% increase from 2022/23 but a 5% decrease compared to the last five years). The sunseed yield is forecasted to be 2.1 tons per hectare (a 5% decrease).

According to data from the European Commission, between July 1 and October 22, 2023, EU wheat exports reached 9.33 million tons, a 22% decrease from 2022/23. For the week of October 16-22, exports reached 372,700 tons (compared to 314,200 tons the previous week). The largest exporters for the season are Romania with 2.5 million tons, France with 1.8 million tons, and Poland with 1.6 million tons. The largest customers include Morocco with 1.5 million tons, Nigeria with 1.02 million tons, Algeria with 814,000 tons, South Africa with 580,000 tons, and South Korea with 451,800 tons.

According to Fedoil data, in September, the processing of the three main oil crops in the EU was 3.03 million tons (compared to 2.86 million tons in September). The processing of rapeseed reached 1.59 million tons (an 11% decrease compared to August and no change compared to September 2022), soybean processing reached 0.95 million tons (a 15% decrease and the same as in 2022), and sunseed processing reached 486,000 tons (a 19% increase compared to 321,000 tons). The processing of all oil crops since the beginning of the season is 28.98 million tons, including 10.4 million tons of soybeans, 4.3 million tons of sunseed, and 14.2 million tons of rapeseed.

A delegation representing soybean importers from China, during their visit to the United States, signed an agreement with the U.S. Soybean Export Council. While the documents are not binding, they provide guidance for future cooperation, and the estimated amount in the documents is over 1 billion dollars. A similar agreement was last signed in 2017.

According to Anec's forecast, soybean exports from Brazil in October are expected to reach 6.88 million tons (a 16% increase compared to September and 3.59 million tons in October 2022). During the week of October 15-21, exports reached 1.57 million tons (compared to 1.3 million tons the previous week). In October, Brazil is expected to export 8.49 million tons of corn (compared to 9.33 million tons and 6.17 million tons) with a possibility of decreasing to 7.8 million tons. During the week of October 15-21, exports reached 2.26 million tons (compared to 1.77 million tons the previous week).

The government of Argentina has extended the application period for the "soy dollar" until November 17, 2023. Presidential elections in the country are scheduled for November 19, 2023. The current fourth stage of the program began on September 5, 2023, and has been extended several times. In early September, the soybean stocks available for sale in the country were 7 million tons and are now estimated to be between 3 and 4 million tons.

In their October report, analysts from IGC have raised their forecast for global wheat flour trade in 2023/24 by 0.4 million tons to 14.5 million tons. The record achievement was in 2016/17 with 17.6 million tons.