Grain Highlights 14.03.2024

IKAR forecasts a grain production in Russia for 2024 of 147 million tons, including 93 million tons of wheat, which is a moderate forecast.

- According to IKAR, the grain production in Russia for 2024 is forecasted at 147 million tons, including 93 million tons of wheat, which is a moderate estimate. An optimistic scenario suggests a grain production of around 157 million tons, which would be on par with the record-setting 2022.

- In January, Russia exported 124,600 tons of sunseed oil to India, and in February, 185,300 tons. For both months, sunseed oil exports to China reached 910,000 tons, Turkey 562,000 tons, Iran 520,000 tons, and Egypt 416,000 tons.

- According to the FAS USDA forecast for 2024/25, Turkey will increase production of major oil crops (soybeans, sunseed, and cotton) to 3.1 million tons (+12% compared to 2023/24). Sunseed harvest is expected to reach 1.675 million tons (+8%), imports are expected at 775,000 tons (+175,000), and consumption is estimated at 2.4 million tons (+300,000).

- As of March 1, 2024, wheat reserves in Kazakhstan stood at 9.26 million tons (10.49 years earlier), and barley stocks were at 1.47 million tons (1.53).

- According to data from the European Commission, from the beginning of the season until March 3, 2024, corn imports into the EU reached 11.5 million tons, which is 40% less than the previous year. Spain received the largest grain shipments at 5.54 million tons, followed by Italy at 1.36 million tons, and the Netherlands at 1.39 million tons. Ukraine remains the largest supplier with 7.73 million tons (10.4 years earlier). Corn exports from the EU during this period amounted to 2.7 million tons (+71%).

- Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for wheat production in the EU by 1.4 million tons to 128.8 million tons (-4.2% compared to the previous year), including 121.6 million tons of soft wheat (-1 and -4.1%). Barley production is expected to reach 51.8 million tons (-1.3 and 47.4%), and corn production is projected at 64.4 million tons (+0.3 and +2.8%).

- According to SEA estimates, palm oil imports to India in February reached 497,800 tons (-36% compared to January), the lowest level since May 2023. Sunseed oil imports were 297,100 tons (+35%), and soyoil imports reached 172,900 tons (-8%). As of March 1, 2024, vegetable oil reserves in India reached 2.38 million tons (-10%), the lowest level in the last 18 months.

- China has canceled purchases of 1 million tons of wheat from Australia, with deliveries scheduled for February, March, and April. In recent weeks, purchases of over 500,000 tons of wheat from the United States have also been canceled.

- According to Oil World, soybean production in Paraguay for the current year will be 10 million tons (9.7 million in 2023). In February alone, exports reached 1.02 million tons (474,000 in February 2023). From January to February, soybean exports reached 1.7 million tons (507,000), soymeal exports were 253,000 tons (42,000), and soyoil exports were 82,000 tons (12,000).