Grain Highlights 15.03.2024

The Association of Farmer Cooperatives in Germany forecasts a wheat production in the country in 2024 of 20.14 million tons (a decrease of 6.5% compared to 2023), and a rapeseed production of 3.93 million tons (a decrease of 6.9%).

- The Russian Grain Union forecasts grain exports from Russia in 2024/25 to reach 66 million tons, including 54 million tons of wheat. In 2023/24, grain exports will be 67 million tons, including 55 million tons of wheat. The grain production in the country for the new season will be 149 million tons, including 95 million tons of wheat.

- During the week of March 20th to 26th, the export tax on wheat from Russia will be 3,143 rubles/ton (previously 3,344.5). The export tax on barley will be 408.1 rubles/ton (previously 667.6) and the export tax on corn will be 71.2 rubles/ton (previously 527).

- From July 1, 2023, to March 15, 2024, Ukraine's grain exports reached 32.265 million tons (34.734 million tons the previous year), including 2.595 million tons in March (previously 2.437). Wheat exports were 12.864 million tons (previously 11.989), barley exports reached 1.806 million tons (previously 2.141), corn exports reached 17.309 million tons (previously 20.290).

- From the beginning of the season until March 3, 2024, corn imports into the EU amounted to 11.5 million tons (a 40% decrease compared to the previous year). The largest recipients of grain were Spain with 5.54 million tons, Italy with 1.36 million tons, and the Netherlands with 1.39 million tons. Ukraine was the main supplier with 7.73 million tons (previously 10.4). Corn exports from the EU were 2.7 million tons (a 71% increase).

- The Association of Farmer Cooperatives in Germany forecasts a wheat production in the country in 2024 of 20.14 million tons (a 6.5% decrease from 2023), and rapeseed production is projected at 3.93 million tons (a 6.9% decrease). The winter barley production will be 9.23 million tons (a 4% decrease), spring barley production is expected at 1.77 million tons (an 11.6% decrease), and corn production is estimated at 3.94 million tons (a 6.5% decrease).

- According to estimates by the port operator Haropa, during the week of March 7th to 13th, 97,600 tons of grain were exported from the French port of Rouen (a 48% decrease compared to the previous week). Shipments included 32,400 tons to Morocco, 30,500 tons to Mauritania, and 30,200 tons to Algeria. Additionally, 84,500 tons of barley were shipped to China, totaling 296,300 tons since the beginning of the season. From the port of La Pallice, 112,300 tons of wheat were exported, including 42,000 tons to Senegal and 33,000 tons to China.

- According to FranceAgriMer's forecast for 2023/24, French soft wheat exports to non-EU countries will reach 10.2 million tons, matching the previous season. During the first eight months of the season, 1.8 million tons of wheat were exported to China. Barley exports outside the EU will be 3.4 million tons (an increase of 0.5 and 0.3%).

- In January, wheat imports into the UK reached 188,900 tons (270,900 in December), totaling 1.25 million tons since the beginning of 2023/24 (0.808 million tons previously). The largest supplier for the month was France with 51,800 tons, and since the beginning of the season, Canada with 351,800 tons. Wheat exports from the UK in January were 3,100 tons, totaling 165,700 tons since the beginning of the season (761,270 tons previously).

- According to USDA data as of March 10, 2024, 53% of the winter wheat crops in Kansas are in good or excellent condition (17% the previous year and 35% the five-year average), as well as 73% of the winter wheat crops in Louisiana (64% and 52%), 64% in Mississippi (57% and 52%), 65% in Oklahoma (28% and 47%), 44% in Texas (17% and 23%), and 54% of the crops in Arkansas (61% and 49%).

- The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its forecast for soybean production in Argentina for 2023/24 by 0.5 million tons to 50 million tons, twice the amount from 2022/23. Corn production remains unchanged at 57 million tons.

- In recent weeks, China has canceled deliveries of 0.5 million tons of wheat from the United States and 1 million tons from Australia. They have postponed other deliveries from the first quarter of 2024 to the second and third quarters. Previous forecasts for wheat imports into the country were 12–15 million tons (11.88 in 2023). Now there are predictions that this year's imports will be below the level of 2023.