Grain Highlights 10.04.2024

Chinese buyers have canceled a purchase of 504,000 tons of wheat from the United States, which is the largest canceled deal in history.

According to the FAS USDA forecast, the oilseed production in the EU will be 32.64 million metric tons /33.015 in 2023/24/. Vegetable oil production will be 18.48 million metric tons /18.773/, and oil meal production is projected at 31.043 million metric tons /31.132/.

In March, soybean exports from Ukraine were 227,000 metric tons /323,000 in February and 417,000 in March 2023/, totaling 2.45 million metric tons /2.35/ for the season. Additionally, 202,000 metric tons of soyoil were exported /165,000/.

During the period from 01.07.2023 to 10.04.2024, Ukraine exported 37.086 million metric tons of grain /38.824 a year earlier/, including 2.227 million metric tons in April /0.848/. Wheat exports amounted to 14.541 million metric tons /13.335/, barley exports reached 2.117 million metric tons /2.309/, and corn exports were 20.133 million metric tons /22.858/.

As of 08.04.2024, 72% of the crop for Brazil's second corn production are in good to excellent condition /81% a year earlier and 97% two years earlier/. Deterioration continues due to insufficient rainfall. While there are some rains, the quantity is insufficient.

According to the FAS USDA forecast for 2024/25, China's corn production will reach 296 million metric tons /+2.4% compared to 2023/24/. Corn acreage will be 44.3 million hectares as farmers prefer to grow corn, which yields higher profits, despite government subsidies for soybeans. Corn consumption will reach 318 million metric tons /+13/. Corn consumption for feed will reach 282.5 million metric tons /283/. Feed production will be 235 million metric tons /223 in 2023/24 and 220 in 2022/23/. Corn imports will be 20 million metric tons /23 in the current season/.

Chinese buyers have canceled the purchase of 504,000 metric tons of wheat from the United States, marking the largest canceled deal in history. Deliveries totaling 1 million metric tons of wheat from Australia have also been canceled or postponed. Market observers believe that expensive wheat purchases are being canceled early in order to buy cheaper wheat now. Meanwhile, the Chinese are not buying cheap Russian wheat because it does not meet their requirements.

Authorities in China are launching a program to increase grain yields by 50 million metric tons by 2030, totaling 650 million metric tons.

According to Oil World data, global soybean exports in March amounted to 17.28 million metric tons /13.58 in February and 18.13 in March 2023/. Brazil exported 12.63 million metric tons of soybeans /6.61 and 13.24/, the US 3.20 million metric tons /3.14 and 5.27/, Paraguay 1.05 million metric tons /1.18 and 1.03/, and Ukraine 230,000 metric tons /410,000 and 320,000/. The largest importer during the month was China with 11.12 million metric tons /11.41 and 8.37/, followed by the EU with 1.14 million metric tons /1.31 and 0.99/, and Argentina with 1.08 million metric tons /1.34 and 0.97/. From September to March, global soybean exports reached a record 96.7 million metric tons /92.9/.