Grain Highlights 18.06.2024

SovEcon forecasts that Russia's grain production in 2024/25 will be 127.4 million tons (144.9 in 2023/24), including wheat production of 80.7 million tons (-13%), barley production of 18.6 million tons (-12%), and corn production of 14.6 million tons (-12%).

- During the period from July 1, 2023, to June 11, 2024, Russia exported 441,700 tons of durum wheat, 340,800 tons of soft wheat, 312,100 tons of corn, 182,900 tons of rye, 59,100 tons of barley, and 2,800 tons of sorghum to the EU.

- Between June 1 and June 17, Russia exported 2.7 million tons of grain (-11% compared to the previous year), including 2.38 million tons of wheat (-0.8%), 204,000 tons of barley (-26%), and 135,000 tons of corn (-63%).

- According to a government forecast, during the 2024/25 period, Ukraine will export 60 million tons of grains and oilseeds. The grain production will be 56 million tons: wheat production of 21 million tons, barley production of 5 million tons, corn production of 28.5 million tons. Grain exports will total 43 million tons, including wheat exports of 15 million tons, barley exports of 2.5 million tons and corn exports of 25 million tons. The oilseed production will reach 22 million tons, including rapeseed production of 4 million tons, sunseed production of 13 million tons and soybean production of 5 million tons. Exports of oilseeds and their processed products will total 17 million tons.

- According to data from the European Commission, from the beginning of the season to June 11, 2024, 42.6 million tons of grain were exported (-4% compared to 2022/23). Soft wheat exports were 28.76 million tons (-5%), durum wheat exports reached 733,700 tons (+2%), barley exports were 5.55 million tons (-12%), corn exports were 3.62 million tons (+12%). Imports of soft wheat to the EU were 9.09 million tons (+4%), durum wheat imports reached 2.41 million tons (+30%), barley imports were 1.83 million tons (-8%) and corn imports were 17.5 million tons (-31%). The main supplier of soft wheat and corn was Ukraine with 6.4 million tons and 12 million tons respectively, and the main supplier of durum wheat was Turkey with 0.7 million tons.

- According to USDA data as of June 16, 2024, 72% of US corn crops are in good to excellent condition (74% a week earlier and 55% a year earlier), which is the best level since 2018. For soybeans, 70% of the soybean crops are in good to excellent condition (72% and 54%), as well as 76% of spring wheat crops (72% and 51%), and 49% of winter wheat crops (47% and 38%). Winter wheat has been harvested on 27% of the areas (+15% for the week and 13% a year earlier).

- In 2023/24, corn consumption for ethanol production in Brazil will be 17 million tons (13.26 in 2022/23).

- In May, China imported 1.05 million tons of corn (-11% compared to April), the lowest monthly level since April 2023, when imports were 1 million tons. Since the beginning of the season, imports have been 23.9 million tons (31.1).

- Oil World forecasts a growth in global soybean processing in 2024/25 by 13 million tons compared to 2023/24, reaching 340-341 million tons. The soybean production is projected to reach 416.5 million tons (388.76), including soybean production in the United States of 121 million tons (113.34). Ending stocks of soybeans for the new season will be 119 million tons (+19).