Grain Highlights 09.08.2024

SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2024/25 from 84.7 million tons to 82.9 million tons.

- SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2024/25 from 84.7 million tons to 82.9 million tons. In contrast, IKAR has increased its forecast from 83.2 million tons to 83.8 million tons, with the total grain production rising from 128 million tons to 129.5 million tons. The barley production is expected to reach 17.2 million tons (up from 16.9 million), and corn production is projected at 14.3 million tons (up from 14). Russia's grain exports in the new season are forecasted to be 56.2 million tons (up from 55 million), including 44.5 million tons of wheat (up from 44 million). The oilseeds production is expected to be around 28 million tons.

- As of August 8, 2024, Ukraine has harvested 6.521 million hectares of grain crops (59% of the total area), yielding 27.322 million tons of grain with an average yield of 4.19 tons/hectare. Wheat has been harvested on 97% of the areas, with 20.94 million tons of grain collected at a yield of 4.42 tons/hectare. Barley has been harvested on 98% of the areas, yielding 5.2 million tons at 3.81 tons/hectare. Rapeseed has been harvested on 97% of the area, producing 3.318 million tons at 2.72 tons/hectare.

- Between July 1 and August 9, 2024, Ukraine exported 4.713 million tons of grain (compared to 2.762 million tons during the same period last season), including 1.011 million tons in August (compared to 488,000 tons last year). Wheat exports amounted to 2.157 million tons (611,000 tons in August), barley exports were 677,000 tons (96,000 tons), and corn exports reached 1.862 million tons (302,000 tons).

- According to a forecast by the French Ministry of Agriculture, the 2024/25 grain production in France will be at its lowest level in the past 40 years and 25% lower than in 2023/24. The total grain production is expected to reach 54.8 million tons (down by 10 million tons), including 13.75 million tons of corn (up from 12.62 million), and 10.4 million tons of barley (down from 11.3 million in the previous estimate and 15% lower than last season).

- Data from Secex indicates that Brazil exported 11.25 million tons of grain in July (compared to 9.7 million tons in July 2023).

- According to a forecast by China's Ministry of Agriculture, the 2024 spring crop production in the country will reach 149.78 million tons, the highest level in the past nine years.

- FAS USDA data shows that Indonesia imported a record 12.6 million tons of wheat in 2023/24, a 33% increase from 2022/23. Wheat consumption in the country was 11.3 million tons, and it is expected to remain the same in 2024/25. In the new season, corn imports are expected to be 12 million tons, with consumption at 9 million tons.

- On August 8, 2024, Algeria purchased 600,000 – 700,000 tons of milling wheat at a price of 250.5 – 252 USD/ton C&F. At the previous tender on August 18, 2024, 700,000 – 750,000 tons of wheat were purchased at a price of 241 – 244 USD/ton C&F, with the main suppliers being Russia, Ukraine, and Bulgaria.