Grain Highlights 14.08.2024

Yesterday, Egypt attempted to purchase 3.8 million tons of wheat, taking advantage of low prices on international markets. In the end, only 280,000 tons were purchased.

- During the week starting on August 14, 2024, the export tax on wheat from Russia is set at 257.3 rubles per ton (compared to 444.4 rubles a week earlier). This is the lowest level since duties were implemented in June 2021. The export tax on corn is 344.5 rubles per ton after many weeks of being at zero, while the export tax on barley remains at zero.

- In its August report, the USDA forecasts Russian vegetable oil exports for 2024/25 at 6.21 million tons (6.22 million in the July estimate and 6.55 million in 2023/24). Sunseed oil exports are expected to be 3.95 million tons (down from 4.15 million), and soyoil exports are projected at 750,000 tons (730,000 and 760,000 previously). The soybean production is projected to reach 7.3 million tons (up from 6.6 million).

- In July, Ukraine exported 290,000 tons of sunseed meal (-28% compared to June and +12% compared to 2023/24). Of this, 179,000 tons were exported to China, and 102,000 tons to the EU.

- According to a USDA forecast, EU wheat exports in 2024/25 will reach their lowest level in three years at 34 million tons (-0.5 compared to July and 35.1 million in 2023/24). The production is expected to be 128 million tons (-2 compared to July). Due to the smaller corn production and the large amount of feed wheat in France and Germany, demand for it will remain high. During the season, feed wheat consumption in the EU will be 46 million tons, with total consumption at 110.3 million tons. Ending stocks are projected to be 10.2 million tons (10.9 million in July).

- Between July 1 and August 11, 2024, the EU imported 1.21 million tons of soybeans (compared to 1.52 million a year earlier), according to European Commission data. Imports of rapeseed were 0.44 million tons (0.29), soymeal imports were 2.24 million tons (1.99), and palm oil imports reached 0.29 million tons (0.42). Soft wheat exports were 3.09 million tons (3.96), and barley exports were 1.15 million tons (1.46).

- According to Conab's forecast, Brazil's soybean production in 2023/24 will be 147.38 million tons (+1.2 compared to the previous estimate and -6.92 compared to 2022/23). The export forecast remains unchanged at 92.4 million tons.

- Algeria has announced a tender to purchase at least 50,000 tons of durum wheat with delivery within October-November. In the previous tender, 600,000 to 700,000 tons of milling wheat of unspecified origin were purchased.

- Yesterday, Egypt attempted to purchase 3.8 million tons of wheat, taking advantage of low prices on international markets. In the end, only 280,000 tons were purchased. The main obstacle to the large deal was the attempt to tie it to a significant payment deferral of 270 days. Market operators are reluctant to commit to delivering large quantities with an April delivery deadline (very long) and a 270-day payment deferral. Such risk is also associated with a much higher price, which was reflected in the "distant" offers. Egypt tried to play smart, but in this game, everyone plays smart. The offers were almost entirely from the Black Sea region.

- Egypt is in direct negotiations with Russia for the supply of up to 30 shipments of soft wheat (each 50-60 thousand tons). It is unclear if deliveries from other countries will be included in the purchase.

- Jordan has purchased 60,000 tons of milling wheat at a price of 259.9 USD/ton C&F, with delivery in September.