Grain Highlights 15.08.2024

The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts the corn production in Argentina for 2023/24 at 49 million tons (47.5 in the previous estimate).

- As of August 1, 2024, grain stocks in Russia's agricultural organizations stood at 28.99 million tons, which is a 17% increase compared to the previous year. Wheat stocks amounted to 22.51 million tons (+20%), and corn stocks were 0.82 million tons (+4%). Sunflower seed stocks reached 0.21 million tons (-65%), while total oilseed stocks were 1.11 million tons (-23%).

- The Romanian government has announced compensation for farmers affected by drought, which is quite significant. Payments will range from 200 to 250 EUR per hectare, with total aid expected to reach 600 million EUR.

- In its August report, the USDA forecasts the EU corn production for 2024/25 at 60.5 million tons (down from 64 million in the previous estimate). Consumption is projected to reach 75.6 million tons (75.6 and 77.1 in 2023/24). Feed consumption has been reduced to 55.8 million tons. Exports are expected to be 3.5 million tons (4 and 4.4), and stocks are expected to be 6.88 million tons (7.49).

- The wheat production in Bulgaria is expected to be 6.7 million tons (6.5 in the July estimate), barley production is projected at 0.85 million tons (0.75), corn production is estimated at 2.2 million tons (2.86), sunseed production at 1.94 million tons (2.05), and rapeseed production at 0.25 million tons (0.25).

- According to a forecast by FranceAgriMer, the soft wheat production in France in 2024 will reach 26.3 million tons, which is 24% less than the average harvests during the period from 2019 to 2023. Overall, the quality of the grain is satisfactory despite the heavy rainfall.

- The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts the corn production in Argentina for 2023/24 at 49 million tons (47.5 in the previous estimate). The production for 2024/25 is expected to be 49 million tons.

- Algeria has purchased a certain quantity of durum wheat, most likely from Canada and Turkey, at prices of 328–332 USD/ton FOB (approximately 340 C&F). The tender was initially announced for 50,000 tons of durum wheat with delivery within October–November.

- Jordan has canceled a tender for the purchase of 120,000 tons of feed barley from any origin. Offers for delivery were made by Viterra, Bunge, Ameropa, Cargill, Al Dahra, and Dreyfus. The next tender will be held on August 21, 2024, with deliveries scheduled for September–October. On August 20, 2024, a tender will be held for the purchase of 120,000 tons of milling wheat from any origin, with delivery scheduled for October–November.

- According to SEA data, 1.89 million tons of vegetable oils were delivered to India in July (+8% compared to July 2023). Palm oil imports amounted to 1.12 million tons (1.02), including 630,000 tons from Indonesia, 300,000 tons from Malaysia, and 120,000 tons from Thailand. Sunseed oil deliveries totaled 367,000 tons (+14%), including 190,000 tons from Russia, 86,000 tons from Argentina, and 43,000 tons from Ukraine. Soybean oil imports were 392,000 tons (401,000), including 302,000 tons from Argentina and 87,000 tons from Brazil. At the end of July, vegetable oil stocks at Indian ports were 1 million tons, the highest level in the past eight months.