Grain Highlights 16.08.2024

The IGC has lowered its forecast for Russia's grain production in 2024/25 to 119.4 million tons from 121.7 in the July estimate.

- SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2024 by 1.8 million tons to 82.9 million tons (92.8 million in 2023 and an average of 86.7 million over the last five years). The area planted will be 29.2 million hectares. The total grain production in the country will reach 130.5 million tons (+3.1 compared to July), when the wheat production was raised by 3.5 million tons to 84.2 million tons.

- During the week starting from August 21, 2024, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 828.4 rubles/ton (257.3 in the previous week). The 50% duty on sunseed exports has been extended.

- The IGC has lowered its forecast for Russia's grain production in 2024/25 to 119.4 million tons from 121.7 in the July estimate. Exports are expected to be 52.2 million tons (-1.9%), and for 2023/24, 68.5 million tons. The wheat production will be 81.8 million tons with exports of 43.2 million tons.

- Since the beginning of the harvest, Russia has collected 73 million tons of grain. The quality of wheat is on par with last year. About 76% of the wheat is classified in grades 1-4.

- According to OleoScope data, from January to July, Russia exported 4.52 million tons of vegetable oils (+13% compared to the previous year). Exports of oilseeds were 1.77 million tons (-30%). Sunseed oil exports reached 3.44 million tons (+31%).

- From August 1 to August 13, Ukraine exported 420,400 tons of rapeseed (+49% compared to July and 711,300 for the entire August 2023). The forecast for August indicates exports of 900,000 tons, which would be a record achievement.

- According to the Ukrainian customs service, from July 1 to August 16, 2024, the country exported 5.529 million tons of grain (3.299 million a year earlier), including 1.827 million tons in August (1.025 million). Exports included 2.608 million tons of wheat (1.328 million), 640,000 tons of barley (397,000), and 2.061 million tons of corn (1.568 million).

- As of August 15, 2024, Ukraine harvested 6.713 million hectares of grain crops or 61% of the planted areas. A total of 28.459 million tons of grain has been harvested, with an average yield of 4.24 tons/hectare. Wheat has been fully harvested with 21.68 million tons collected, barley is also fully harvested with 5.48 million tons. Rapeseed has been harvested from 98% of the planted areas, yielding 3.358 million tons, while 4,200 hectares of sunseed (out of 4.89 million hectares) have been harvested, producing 3,800 tons of seeds with an average yield of 0.9 tons/hectare.

- According to data from Kazakhstan's Ministry of Agriculture, 5.5% of the grain areas have been harvested, producing 1.8 million tons with an average yield of 1.93 tons/hectare. The wheat production could exceed a record 17 million tons (12.1 million in 2023 and 16.4 million in 2022).

- Egypt's state company GASC is not in negotiations with Russia for grain purchases. Recent actions are seen more as price checks, but no deals have been made.

- In 2023/24, India's corn exports decreased by 86% compared to 2020/21, making the country a net importer for the first time in the last 100 years. Increased demand from poultry farmers and ethanol producers has created a new reality for the country. Wheat exports in 2023/24 decreased by 90% compared to 2022/23 to 0.34 million tons, while wheat stocks have fallen to their lowest level in the last 15 years.