Grain Highlights 20.08.2024

SovEcon has raised its forecast for the 2024 Russian wheat production from 82.9 million tons to 83.3 million tons.

- SovEcon forecasts that Russia will export 4.6 million tons of wheat in August (up from 3.6 million tons in July). Barley exports in August are expected to reach 600,000 tons (the same as July), and corn exports are projected at 200,000 tons (down from 300,000 tons).

- SovEcon has raised its forecast for the 2024 Russian wheat production from 82.9 million tons to 83.3 million tons. The grain production forecast has been lowered to 128.4 million tons from 130.5 million tons. The barley production is expected to reach 18.2 million tons (down from 19.3 million tons), and the corn production is forecasted at 11.9 million tons (down from 13.4 million tons). The corn production will be the lowest since 2018, when it reached 11.4 million tons.

- The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates that Russia will export 72 million tons of grain in the 2023/24 season. For 2024/25, exports are expected to reach 60 million tons with a production of 132 million tons.

- In 2024, Russia's rapeseed production is expected to reach 5.4 million tons (an increase of 1.2 million tons compared to 2023/24). As of August 15, 2024, 22% of the rapeseed areas have been harvested, with an average yield of 2.54 tons per hectare (down from 2.82 tons per hectare in 2023).

- Russia's sunseed oil exports in 2023/24 are projected to reach 5.2 million tons (up from 4.1 million tons in 2022/23), according to a forecast by the Oilseed Union of Russia.

- ASAP Agri expects Ukraine's soybean production in 2024 to reach 5.7 million tons, with exports exceeding 3.1 million tons. The rapeseed production is estimated at 4 million tons, and the sunseed production at 13 million tons.

- Wheat processors in Ukraine have proposed to the government to amend the memorandum with the country's grain exporters. They suggest creating two categories of wheat with different quotas within the overall quota of 15.2 million tons, potentially based on a protein content threshold of 11%.

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of August 14, 2024, 97.8% of the corn acreage in Argentina has been harvested. A total of 45.56 million tons of grain have been gathered, with the overall production expected to reach 46.5 million tons.

- Egypt remains confident that it will be able to negotiate the import of 3.8 million tons of wheat by the end of 2024 through international tenders and direct agreements. The government has indicated that Turkey is being considered as a supplier, especially since Algeria recently purchased a large batch of wheat.