Grain Highlights 01.11.2024

In September, 5.07 million tons of soybeans were processed in the United States, which is below forecasts, but 11.31% more than in August and 6.72% more than the record in September 2023.

- In October, Russia exported 7.14 million tons of grain (+1% compared to October 2023). A total of 6.5 million tons of wheat was exported (5.8 million), barley exports reached 430,000 tons (-31.6%), and corn exports were 217,700 tons (-62.5%). Since the beginning of the season (July - October), 25 million tons of grain have been exported, including 21.8 million tons of wheat. Egypt was the largest wheat customer in October with 1.358 million tons, followed by Algeria with 516,000 tons, Turkey with 512,500 tons, Kenya with 270,200 tons, Tunisia with 154,400 tons, and Nigeria with 195,600 tons.

- According to a forecast by Ukroliaprom, sunseed oil production in Ukraine will be 5.6 million tons in 2024/25 (compared to 6.6 million in 2023/24).

- Since the start of the season until November 1, 2024, Ukraine exported 14.4 million tons of grain (9.244 million in 2023/24), including 3.953 million tons in October (2.419 million). Wheat exports were 7.742 million tons (4.633 million), barley exports reached 1.699 million tons (0.682 million), and corn exports were 4.681 million tons (3.806 million).

- As of October 31, 2024, 10.141 million hectares of grain crops have been harvested in Ukraine, accounting for 91% of all planted areas (11.116 million hectares). A total of 47.972 million tons of grain have been harvested, with an average yield of 4.73 tons per hectare. Corn has been harvested on 76% of the areas, yielding 18.293 million tons with an average yield of 5.95 tons per hectare. The crop has the potential to reach 24.5 million tons. Sunseed has been harvested on 94% of the areas, yielding 9.599 million tons with an average yield of 2.06 tons per hectare. The production could reach 10.2 million tons.

- During the week, demand for sunseed in Ukraine remained high. Supply from farmers is decreasing as harvesting is nearly complete, and all sales from the field have already been realized. The price of the crop at the port of Odessa increased by 15 – 20 USD/ton during the week. The latest indicative prices (as of November 1) for sunseed are: DAO Ukraine factory 550 – 570 USD/ton, DAP Bulgaria center 605 – 610 USD/ton, C&F Bulgaria port 595 – 600 USD/ton.

- In September, 5.07 million tons of soybeans were processed in the United States, which is below forecasts, but 11.31% more than in August and 6.72% more than the record in September 2023. Strong data is supported by a shortage of soyoil, which is increasingly used in biodiesel production. As of September 30, 2024, soybean oil stocks in the United States stood at 1.501 billion pounds (down from 1.629 million the previous month and 1.607 million a year earlier, with forecasts at 1.529 million). There is a clear significant decline in stocks, which will keep soybean prices high until the indicator stabilizes.

- Rabobank expects a record soybean production in Brazil in 2024/25 of 167 million tons (+9% from the 2023/24 level). The delay in planting does not pose risks to the crop but rather to the next second corn production. Soybean planting areas in Brazil will increase by 1.5% to 47 million hectares. The corn production forecast has been increased by 3 million tons to 125 million tons.

- Indonesian authorities have raised the base price of crude palm oil in the country for November to 951.97 USD/ton from 893.64 USD/ton in October. The new price raises the export tax to 124 USD/ton. An additional customs charge of 7.5% is imposed for CPO, and for processed products, 3 – 6%. Earlier, it was reported that Malaysia raised its export duty for the first time in three years to 9.5%.

- The authorities in Indonesia are taking measures to expand palm plantations ahead of the introduction of the B50 standard. Currently, the area is 16.8 million hectares, with 50.07 million tons of CPO produced in 2023. With the introduction of the new standard in 2026, 20 million kiloliters of CPO will be needed annually, given current capacities of 17 – 18 million kiloliters.

- On October 31, 2024, Algeria purchased 480,000 tons of milling wheat of unspecified origin at a price of 263 USD/ton C&F with delivery in November - December. The likely suppliers are countries from the Black Sea region, including Romania, Bulgaria, and Baltic countries.