Over the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair rose by 0.0159 to 1.0577.

The price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by $3.24 per barrel to $68.00 per barrel.

Oil prices declined on Friday despite the potential resumption of supply risks, as Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of violating the ceasefire that took effect on Wednesday. On Thursday, OPEC+ postponed its next meeting from December 1 to December 5, where the group is expected to further extend production cuts.

On Friday, BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions, lowered its forecast for Brent crude prices in 2025 to $76 per barrel, down from the previous estimate of $78 per barrel. The revision was attributed to "unfavorable fundamental outlooks, persistent weakness in oil market sentiment, and downward price pressures anticipated during a second presidential term for Donald Trump."

While OPEC+ is likely to carry over existing production cuts into the new year, BMI noted that this would not be sufficient to fully offset the production surplus forecasted for the next year.

Over the previous week, March SRW wheat futures in Chicago fell by 16 1/2 cents to close at $5.48 per bushel.

During the same period, CBOT March corn futures decreased by 2 1/4 cents to close at $4.33 per bushel.

Throughout the past week, January soybean futures in Chicago rose by 6 cents to close at $9.89 1/2 per bushel.

Accumulated US export sales for the week ending November 21.

*Source: USDA

Weather:

Over the past week, the weather in the United States was mostly dry, with temperatures gradually decreasing. In Western Europe, there was light precipitation. Rainfall was also observed in parts of Ukraine and Russia, with temperatures remaining slightly positive. Heavy rainfall occurred in Australia, moderate in Brazil, and lighter in Argentina.

In the next 10 days, the Corn Belt in the United States will experience cold weather without precipitation. The US Wheat Belt will have predominantly mild temperatures and no rainfall. In Western Europe, temperatures will remain mild with light rain. On the Balkans and in Ukraine, temperatures will stay positive with light to moderate rainfall. Weather in Russia will remain cold and dry. India will see moderate temperatures without rain, and in China, temperatures will also stay positive with no rainfall. In Australia, the west will remain dry, while the south and east will see significant rainfall. Brazil will experience heavy rainfall in central areas and moderate rain in the south, while Argentina will have moderate showers.

Overall, precipitation will be absent in large areas of Ukraine and Russia.

GRAIN EXPORTS:

* US (September- August)  /  * Russia, Ukraine and the EU (July- June)

During the week, US wheat, corn, and soybean exports were strong. Weekly export sales of wheat and corn were solid, while soybean sales were excellent. EU wheat exports lag by 4 million tons compared to the previous year. Ukraine’s wheat exports dropped to 250,000 tons on a weekly basis. US soyoil export sales were exceptionally strong. Less than two months into the season, sales already match the level typically achieved in half a year. By the end of the week, palm oil prices began rising again, driven by severe flooding in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Wheat – On Friday, wheat futures declined in Chicago and Paris. For the week ending November 21, 2024, U.S. wheat export sales reached 366,804 tons (549,601 a week earlier and 622,803 a year earlier). Export commitments stand at 15.17 million tons (12.67 million previously). Weekly exports were 433,833 tons (133,914 previously and 340,412 a year ago), with season-to-date exports at 10.41 million tons (7.90 million previously). FranceAgriMer reports that 93% of the planned soft wheat areas in France have been sown (90% a week earlier), with 87% of crops in good or excellent condition (-1% week-over-week). The European Commission forecasts the EU’s 2024/25 soft wheat production at 112.3 million tons (-0.3 from the previous estimate), with total grain production projected at 256.9 million tons (up from 255.6 in October). The durum wheat production forecast remains unchanged at 7.2 million tons, barley production forecast at 49.8 million tons, and corn production estimate at 59.6 million tons (up from 58). For the February 15–June 30, 2025 period, Russia’s wheat export quota is set at 11 million tons (down from 29 million tons a year earlier). There will be no export quotas for barley or corn, effectively halting their exports during this period. Russian export taxes on wheat, barley, and corn are rapidly rising, primarily due to the ruble’s devaluation.

Corn – On Friday, corn futures rose in Chicago but declined in Paris. Weekly US corn export sales totaled 1,062,888 tons (1,494,647 previously and 1,927,760 a year ago), with export commitments at 32.46 million tons (24.46 million previously). Weekly exports reached 1,010,747 tons (957,037 previously and 499,858 a year ago), with season-to-date exports at 10.34 million tons (7.62 million previously). New U.S. President Trump held talks with Mexico’s president, suggesting no tariff war is imminent, though trade regime renegotiations are expected. Analysts believe Trump will use import tariffs as leverage in trade negotiations rather than a strict policy tool. US ethanol production hit a record 1.119 million barrels per day, with stocks rising to 22.869 million barrels (+1.4%). Agroconsult estimates Brazil’s 2024/25 corn production at 132.7 million tons, including a second production of 107.3 million tons. Conab forecasts Brazil’s 2024/25 ethanol production at 36.08 billion liters (+0.67 billion from the previous estimate), mainly from sugarcane (+0.38 billion liters to 28.85 billion liters). In France, 89% of corn areas have been harvested (up from 82% a week earlier).

Soybeans – On Friday, soybean futures rose in Chicago. Soymeal futures showed mixed movements, while soyoil futures declined. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada increased. USDA reported a private export sale of 840,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination and another 151,700 tons to a separate unknown destination. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were 2,490,461 tons (1,860,554 previously and 1,895,319 a year ago), with export commitments at 33.87 million tons (30.88 million previously). Weekly exports reached 2,081,334 tons (2,447,847 previously and 1,477,736 a year ago), with season-to-date exports at 19.27 million tons (16.99 million previously). Soymeal sales were 487,325 tons, and soyoil sales were 124,792 tons. October soybean processing in the United States is expected at 5.74 million tons. Agroconsult projects Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean production at 172.2 million tons (+10.2% year-over-year). In Argentina, 98% of soybean crops are in good or excellent condition, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Rains have improved and maintained crop quality at a high level, with 44% of planned soybean areas sown (+8% week-over-week).

Wheat crops in the United States are in excellent condition following prolonged rains and warm weather, though prices continued to decline last week. Russia will impose its traditional export quota from February 15–June 30, 2025, now reduced to 11 million tons, or roughly one-third of the 2023/24 quota of 29 million tons. Simultaneously, Russian wheat export duties are rapidly increasing due to the ruble’s devaluation. The weaker ruble enhances the competitiveness of Russian products in the short term. This likely prevented wheat prices from rising on Friday, instead leading to declines. Russia’s reduced export quota is a significant price driver, though it has yet to impact markets. The lower export volumes from Russia will redirect shipments toward Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria. Ukraine has already exported 8.837 million tons of wheat (5.755 million a year earlier). However, its overall export potential is expected to be lower than in 2023/24, with much already realized. USDA projects Ukraine’s 2024/25 wheat exports at 15 million tons (18.6 million in 2023/24). For the remainder of the season, exports are estimated at 6.2 million tons (12.8 million previously), averaging 0.2 million tons weekly (0.41 million previously). Comparatively, Russia’s weekly wheat exports under its quota will average 0.54 million tons (1.43 million previously), resulting in a combined weekly reduction of 1.1 million tons from Russia and Ukraine.

In the United States, corn consumption for ethanol production has started the season strongly, with ethanol exports also performing exceptionally well so far. Some analysts predict a year-on-year increase in corn use for ethanol production by 0.6–2.5 million tons. This year, Ukraine's corn production is 6.4 million tons lower than in 2023/24, while Russia's yield is 20% smaller, with export volumes expected to drop by 50%, or 3.3 million tons. Romania and Bulgaria are also in a weak position. Brazil’s production is down by 11%, or 15.2 million tons. Meanwhile, domestic demand for corn in Brazil for feed and ethanol production is rising rapidly, leaving about 25 million tons less available for export compared to the previous season. However, Argentina is set to export 17.3 million tons more corn than in 2023/24.

A critical market is China, which received 15 million tons of corn from Brazil between July 2023 and May 2024. Excluding China from U.S. corn export calculations, the result is the second-best performance in 30 years. This dynamic could push U.S. corn exports for the season to 64–66 million tons, with prices potentially reaching 5 USD/bushel.

The overall export performance of all US crops is robust despite the strong dollar, fostering optimism for the season. Moving forward, the US dollar is likely to weaken slightly, a natural market reaction to its sharp appreciation. A more relaxed financial policy under the new US administration is also anticipated. Another contributing factor has been heavy purchases of corn and soybeans due to concerns over potential export tariffs following Trump’s inauguration. However, markets are expected to reevaluate this factor in a few weeks, likely reducing purchases to normal levels, which will particularly affect U.S. soybeans.

In Brazil, conditions are favorable—rainfall, sowing timelines, and crop development are all progressing as expected. By early January, the first shipments of the new soybean crop will be ready for export, with Brazil’s peak export season starting in March. The anticipated massive new crop could completely halt U.S. soybean exports.

Globally, so much is happening that it is difficult to predict where the world will head in 2025. Tensions in the Middle East remain high despite a declared ceasefire. Israel expects renewed support from Trump after Biden’s cooler stance. However, both sides are exhausted and unlikely to continue the conflict without significant external backing. Iran is seeking advantages through negotiations with the United States, anticipating Trump’s tougher policies toward the country.

Meanwhile, Russia has escalated the war with new strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure as winter begins. Both sides in this conflict are also stretched thin, making continued military action challenging. Inflation in Russia is spiraling out of control and can no longer be curbed by interest rate hikes. Ukraine, for its part, is heavily reliant on external support. Much will depend on the actions of the new U.S. administration, where decision-making is expected to be complex and fraught with challenges.

Changes in FOB prices of major exporters in recent days:

During the week, FOB crop prices around the world showed mixed trends.

Wheat – FOB wheat prices declined. The FOB price of Bulgarian wheat is priced at 232 USD/ton (-$7/ton for the week and +$10/ton from a week earlier). The FOB price of Australian milling wheat stands at 237 USD/ton (-$3 for the week and +$4 from a week earlier), wheat with 10% protein is priced at 230 USD/ton (-$2 for the week and +$3 from a week earlier), and Australian feed wheat is at 206 USD/ton ($202 a week earlier).

Corn – FOB corn prices decreased. Over the week, the FOB price of Brazilian corn dropped by 7 USD/ton to 203 USD/ton (unchanged from a week earlier). US corn prices remain slightly lower than those of other exporters – Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine.

Soybeans – FOB soybean prices were mixed. The FOB price of Brazilian soybeans fell by 9 USD/ton (+$19 a week earlier) to 409 USD/ton.

Over the past week, global oil prices mostly continued to decline, with sunseed oil being the exception, showing increases in some regions.

Export prices Black Sea, USD/mt (compared to the previous week):