During the week starting December 4, 2024, Russia’s export tax on wheat rose to 3,696.3 rubles/ton (from 3,020.3 a week earlier). The export tax on barley increased to 1,767.7 rubles/ton (from 1,166), and the export tax on corn reached 4,127 rubles/ton (from 3,584.1). The growth is primarily attributed to the devaluation of the Russian currency.

According to an IKAR forecast, Russia’s wheat harvest in 2025 is projected at 84 million tons (up from the previous estimate of 80 million tons). This baseline projection may change depending on weather conditions. Data from Rosgidromet indicates that 37% of sown areas are either in poor condition or have not germinated at all, which is a significantly high percentage.

In November, soybean exports from Ukraine reached 466,000 tons, 31% lower than in October and 9% lower than November 2023. Deliveries to the EU decreased as the region sourced soybeans from Brazil and the U.S. EU imports stood at 189,000 tons (down from 324,000 in October). Between September and November, exports totaled 1.38 million tons (+20% year-on-year), a record for the period. The previous record was 1.37 million tons in 2019/20. After the EU, the largest buyers are Pakistan and Egypt.

In 2024/25, global sunseed oil exports are expected to decline by 18% compared to 2023/24. The Black Sea region accounts for 75% of global market exports. Sunseed productions in Bulgaria and Romania are projected to be the lowest in 10 years—1.6 million tons and 1.4 million tons, respectively. Ukraine’s production is expected at or below 12 million tons, while Russia’s is estimated at 16 million tons. Combined exports from Ukraine and Russia are projected at 8.8 million tons (down from 10.7 million tons).

Palm oil prices are rising following severe floods in Malaysia, the worst in a decade. In November, Malaysia’s oil exports dropped by 9.3–10.4%. Another factor is increased demand for oils used in biodiesel production in Indonesia.

Authorities in India will sell 2.5 million tons of wheat from state reserves on the domestic market. Following this announcement, wheat prices have fallen significantly. Current prices range between 3,000–4,000 rupees/ton, compared to the government’s support price for farmers of 2,425 rupees/ton.

Jordan canceled a tender to purchase 120,000 tons of wheat due to high prices. Offers were made by CHS, Viterra, Al Dahra, Ameropa, Olam, and Cereal Crops.

Pakistan’s authorities have officially lifted the ban on importing GM soybeans, granting import licenses to 39 companies.