The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0581. The price of US WTI crude oil declined to $68.30 per barrel.

Oil prices fell on Thursday following OPEC+’s decision to maintain production restrictions. A preliminary agreement was reached to postpone the planned production increase originally scheduled for January. During the meeting, it was decided that the delay would last three months, meaning the increase is now expected to begin in April. The cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, postponed a series of supply hikes, which initially included an increase of 180,000 barrels per day starting in January. With oil prices currently too low, OPEC+ members are unable to raise production due to concerns over further price declines.

In the United States, crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week as refineries ramped up production, according to the Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks grew more than anticipated.

Separately, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy is set to visit Qatar and Israel to kick-start diplomatic efforts by the U.S. President-elect aimed at negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza and securing the release of hostages before his inauguration in January.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 10 cents to $5.58 1/4 per bushel. Wheat futures increased both in Chicago and Paris. For the week ending November 28, 2024, U.S. wheat export sales totaled 378,232 tons (up from 366,804 tons the prior week and 356,412 tons a year earlier). Export commitments reached 15.55 million tons (compared to 13.05 million tons a year ago), while weekly exports were 322,388 tons (down from 433,833 tons but up from 198,864 tons last year). Since the start of the season, wheat exports totaled 10.73 million tons (versus 8.10 million tons last year). StatsCan forecasts Canada’s 2024/25 wheat production at 34.958 million tons, slightly below market expectations of 35.04 million tons but 6.1% higher than last year, with spring wheat accounting for 26.07 million tons. In October, U.S. wheat exports reached 1.42 million tons, down 42% from September but up 37.76% compared to October 2023, marking a four-year high for the month. Japan purchased 111,405 tons of wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures rose by 5 cents to $4.35 per bushel, with futures increasing in both Chicago and Paris. Weekly U.S. corn export sales reached 1,732,394 tons (compared to 1,062,888 tons the previous week and 1,288,887 tons a year ago). Export commitments stood at 34.19 million tons (up from 25.81 million tons a year earlier). Weekly exports totaled 1,045,350 tons (slightly up from 1,010,747 tons and slightly below 1,086,074 tons last year). Season-to-date exports were 11.38 million tons (compared to 8.71 million tons last year). In October, the United States exported 4.05 million tons of corn, the highest level since 2018, although down 5.39% from September. DDGS exports rose by 10.1% to 1.114 million tons, while ethanol exports totaled 143.45 million gallons, the second-highest in history (-3.38%). Brazil exported 4.726 million tons of corn in November, significantly below October’s figure and down 36.2% year-on-year. According to Anec, Brazil’s December corn exports are expected to reach 3.6 million tons, well below last year’s level. Weak exports from Brazil and limited supply from Ukraine due to a smaller production, leave the United States and Argentina as major suppliers. Sinograin has begun purchasing domestic Chinese corn to support prices, which have recently declined again. However, an oversupply of corn in China remains a major global market issue, requiring radical changes to address it.

Yesterday, Chicago January soybean futures rose by 10 cents to $9.93 3/4 per bushel. Soybean and soymeal futures increased in Chicago, while soyoil futures fell. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada also saw gains. The USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 tons of soybeans to China. Weekly export sales for soybeans were 2,312,720 tons (compared to 2,490,461 tons the previous week and 1,404,386 tons a year ago). Export commitments reached 36.19 million tons (up from 32.29 million tons last year), while weekly exports were 2,428,905 tons (compared to 2,081,334 tons last week and 1,222,129 tons last year). Season-to-date exports totaled 21.70 million tons (compared to 18.21 million tons last year). In October, U.S. soybean exports were 9.426 million tons, significantly above September levels and slightly above 2023 levels. Soybean meal exports totaled 1.28 million tons. According to Anec, Brazil is expected to export 1.24 million tons of soybeans in December (down from 3.8 million tons last year). StatsCan reported Canada’s 2024 canola production at 17.845 million tons, down 7% from 2023 and below market expectations of 18.51 million tons, which supported prices. IKAR forecasts Russia’s 2024 sunseed crop at 15.8 million tons (down from 17.4 million tons in 2023), rapeseed production at 4.7 million tons (up from 4.2 million tons), and soybean production at 6.9 million tons (up from 6.8 million tons). Palm oil maintains a significant premium over soyoil, with weather conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia's B40 biodiesel program preventing price drops.

The Federal Reserve chair stated that the U.S. economy remains in very good shape, and labor market risks have significantly diminished. The Fed continues to take a cautious approach toward lowering interest rates.