The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.0549, while the price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped to $68.37 per barrel.

Oil prices rose on Monday following the collapse of Syrian President Assad's regime, which added more uncertainty to the Middle East. Developments in Syria introduced a new layer of political instability in the region, providing some support to the market. However, last week’s price cuts by Saudi Arabia and the extension of production cuts by OPEC+ highlighted weak demand in China. This suggests the market may weaken toward the end of the year.

Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, reduced its January 2025 prices for Asian buyers to the lowest level since early 2021, as weak demand from Beijing significantly impacts the market. Against this backdrop, investors are gearing up for a data-heavy week, including the key U.S. inflation report, which will offer further insights into the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates.

Wheat Futures and Export Trends

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 1 1/2 cents to $5.58 1/4 per bushel. While wheat futures increased in Chicago, they decreased in Paris. During the week ending December 5, 2024, U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 226,513 tons (compared to 298,550 the previous week and 293,756 a year earlier), bringing the season's total to 11.22 million tons (up from 8.63 million tons last year).

According to Kansas State Crop Progress, the rating for winter wheat in the state dropped by 1% to 55% classified as good or excellent. The USDA is expected to release its December report today. Market movements ahead of the report may be exceptions rather than trends.

Last week, Russia exported 1.08 million tons of grain (up from 0.63 million tons the prior week), including 1.01 million tons of wheat (compared to 0.55 million tons). Rusagrotrans forecasts that Russian wheat exports in December will reach 3.4–3.5 million tons and 2.5–3 million tons in January. From January to June 2025, Russian wheat exports are projected to total 12–13 million tons, over 50% less than the previous year’s 29 million tons. Full-season exports are expected to reach 41–42 million tons.

Between July 1 and December 9, 2024, Ukraine exported 18.981 million tons of grain (up from 14.697 million tons the previous year), including 606,000 tons in December (compared to 1.6 million tons last year). Wheat exports totaled 9.115 million tons (121,000 in December), barley exports reached 1.866 million tons (4,000 tons), and corn exports accounted to 7.684 million tons (475,000 tons). The sharp decrease in exports from Russia and Ukraine is expected to increase demand for Romanian and Bulgarian wheat. Global wheat prices are likely to rise in early 2025, presenting an opportunity for sales.

In the Southern Hemisphere, wheat productions are promising. Argentina reports good yields and quality, while Australia's production is solid but suffers from poor quality in southern and eastern regions due to heavy rains.

Corn Futures and Export Developments

March corn futures in Chicago rose by 1 3/4 cents to $4.41 3/4 per bushel yesterday, with prices increasing in both Chicago and Paris. Weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,049,690 tons (up from 948,812 tons the prior week and 725,330 tons a year earlier), bringing the season's total to 12.13 million tons (up from 9.19 million tons).

Algeria rejected all offers for a 240,000-ton corn tender for December delivery. APK-Inform raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2024/25 corn production by 0.9 million tons to 24.9 million tons.

Soybeans and Vegetable Oils

January soybean futures in Chicago fell by 3 3/4 cents to $9.90 3/4 per bushel yesterday. Soybean and soyoil futures in Chicago declined, while soymeal increased. Rapeseed futures rose in Paris, and canola futures in Canada showed mixed trends. Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1,622,197 tons (down from 2,109,665 tons the prior week but up from 999,790 tons a year earlier), with the season’s total reaching 23.44 million tons (up from 19.76 million tons).

In Brazil, 95% of the planned soybean acreage is now planted (compared to 91% last year). The crop is developing well, suggesting a large production. The second corn production is expected to be sown on time, supporting good yields. A potential issue could arise only if the rainy season ends prematurely.

The Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries predicts palm oil prices in 2025 will range from 904 to 1,130 USD/ton, influenced by stagnating production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Current prices, around 1,130 USD/ton, are supported by floods in Malaysia, plantation efforts, and increased demand for biodiesel production.

Sunseed Oil and Rapeseed Market

A forecast of a lower canola harvest in Canada at the end of last week strongly influenced canola futures in Canada and rapeseed futures in Paris. This also quickly impacted sunseed oil prices in Ukraine, which saw a sharp rise. Limited sunseed supply in Ukraine is driving up domestic prices, while Malaysian palm oil prices are rising for other reasons. Soyoil alone cannot significantly influence the overall sector.

Ukraine's Oilseeds Outlook

According to APK-Inform, Ukraine's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated at 6.15 million tons (up from 5.93 million tons in the previous forecast) with exports of 3.55 million tons. The rapeseed production is forecast at 3.91 million tons (up slightly from 3.90 million tons) with exports of 3.35 million tons. Due to a poor sunseed production of 13.8 million tons, sunseed oil exports will drop to 5.55 million tons (down from 6.25 million tons last season), with production at 6 million tons. In 2025, soybean acreage is expected to decrease, while corn acreage will increase.