According to the Russian Grain Exporters Union, Russia's export potential for 2025 is 45 million tons of grain, including 40 million tons of wheat. Between February 15 and June 30, 2025, wheat exports are expected to reach 10.6 million tons. It is likely that the export of 0.5 million tons of corn will be permitted from the Far East, where the production was good. With a new 2025 grain production of 130 million tons, including 85 million tons of wheat, grain exports from Russia in the second half of 2025 will reach 30 million tons, including 25 million tons of wheat. Under a pessimistic scenario, exports during this period will be 20 million tons, almost entirely consisting of wheat.

According to SovEcon's forecast, 36.4 million tons of wheat will be exported from Russia in 2025/26. For 2024/25, the figure will reach 43.7 million tons (down from a previous estimate of 44.1 million tons). The reduction is due to weaker exports so far. This year, corn exports will amount to 2.2 million tons (down from 2.4), barley exports are expected at 2.8 million tons (up from 2.6), and total grain exports at 51.6 million tons (down from 52).

From December 1 to 23, 2.5 million tons of grain were exported from Russia (-23.2% year-on-year), including 2.29 million tons of wheat (-9.3%), 93,000 tons of corn (-79%), and 79,000 tons of barley (-67%). Wheat exports in December are expected to reach 3.1 million tons (down from 3.6). The largest wheat buyers in early December were Egypt (363,000 tons), Bangladesh (288,000 tons), Saudi Arabia (373,000 tons), Turkey (124,000 tons), and Sudan (121,000 tons). The main buyers of corn were Iran (68,500 tons), China (14,300 tons), and Turkey (10,500 tons), while barley buyers included Iran (30,000 tons) and Turkey (2,800 tons).

SovEcon estimates that Russia's wheat exports in December will reach 3.3 million tons (compared to 4.1 million in November and 5.6 million in October). Barley exports for the month are expected to be 100,000 tons, and corn exports are estimated at 200,000 tons. Rusagrotrans forecasts wheat exports in December to be 3.7–3.8 million tons (up from a previous estimate of 3.4–3.5 million). For the July-December period, wheat exports will hit a record 29.4 million tons.

During the week ending December 20, 2024, 473,600 tons of wheat were shipped from Russia's Novorossiysk port (up from 271,400 tons the previous week), including 163,000 tons to Bangladesh, 67,200 tons to Sudan, 59,100 tons to Indonesia, and 54,000 tons to Egypt.

IKAR estimates Russia's new sunseed production at 15.9 million tons (down from 17.25 in 2023/24), soybean production at 7 million tons (up from 6.8), and rapeseed production at 4.7 million tons (up from 4.2).

In January, Russia's export tax on sunseed oil will be 16,067 rubles/ton (up from 9,195 in December). The indicative price of the oil will be 1,027.5 USD/ton (up from $954.7). The export tax on sunseed meal will be 4,771 rubles/ton (up from 3,788), with an indicative price of 221 USD/ton (up from $212). The duty will minimize oil and meal exports as authorities aim to reduce domestic prices.

As of December 1, 2024, grain stocks held by farmers in Russia's Southern Federal District totaled 5.47 million tons (down from 8.1 a year earlier). Wheat stocks were 3.89 million tons (-37%), and corn stocks were 473,000 tons (-39%).

According to Rosstat, Russia's grain production in 2024 was 124.96 million tons (down from 144.9 in 2023), including 82.4 million tons of wheat (down from 98.2). Oilseed productions totaled 28.3 million tons (down from 29.9), including sunseed production of 16.6 million tons (down from 17.3), soybean production of 7.04 million tons (up from 6.8), and rapeseed production of 4.7 million tons (up from 4.2).

Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain exports of 46.9 million tons in 2024/25, including 16.2 million tons of wheat, 20.5 million tons of corn, 2.9 million tons of barley, and 0.7 million tons of other grains. Oilseed exports will include 3.7 million tons of soybeans and 2.9 million tons of rapeseed. Of the sunseed crop, 99.5% (10.9 million tons) will be processed in Ukraine, producing 4.9 million tons of sunseed oil.

Turkey's government confirmed a ban on importing durum wheat until May 31, 2025, and increased the soft wheat import quota from 15% to 25%, with the remainder to be sourced locally. Turkey holds significant reserves of soft wheat purchased at high prices and is now exploring options to sell it, resulting in high prices for end consumers.

The European Commission has further lowered its forecast for the EU's 2024/25 soft wheat production to 111.9 million tons (down from 112.3 million tons in November). The corn production is forecasted at 59.5 million tons (down from 59.6), with total grain production at 255.8 million tons (down from 256.9).

According to Fedoil, 3.23 million tons of oilseeds were processed in the EU in November (down from 3.28 million in October and 3.14 million in November 2023). This includes 1.47 million tons of rapeseed (down from 1.63 and 1.73), 1.23 million tons of soybeans (up from 1.07 and 0.94), and 537,000 tons of sunseed (down from 581,000 and up from 470,000). Since the beginning of 2024, 35.84 million tons of oilseeds have been processed in the EU (up from 34.59), including 17.36 million tons of rapeseed (down from 17.65), 12.75 million tons of soybeans (up from 12.22), and 5.73 million tons of sunflower seeds (up from 4.73).

In 2024, Germany's sunseed production was 51,400 tons (-25% compared to 2023), according to Biofuels International. The cultivated area was 51,400 hectares (-25%). Coceral predicts the 2025 harvest will reach a maximum of 118,000 tons on 49,000 hectares. For the entire EU, the 2025 production is expected to be 9.954 million tons (up from 8.849).

The FAS USDA reports that the quality of Brazil's new wheat crop is low. Since the domestic market consumes mostly high-quality wheat, exports are increasing. In October, 2.5 million tons of wheat were exported (+20% compared to October 2023). Total exports for 2023/24 will reach 2.81 million tons (+5%), with the production at 8.1 million tons (-23%).

Between December 1 and 23, Brazil exported 3.32 million tons of corn. Anec forecasts total December exports at 4.09 million tons (down from 4.89 in November and 6.45 a year earlier). Soybean exports during the same period totaled 1.35 million tons, with full-month exports expected to reach 1.62 million tons.

In Argentina, 70% of corn crops are in excellent condition, and 30% are in very good condition. Rains in October and November have benefited crops, and farmers expect a very good production.

According to Oil World, Argentina exported 2.52 million tons of soymeal in November (down 0.26 from October and up 1.18 from November 2023). Since the start of 2024, soymeal exports totaled 26.6 million tons (up from 16.24). In November, global soymeal exports from the top six exporters reached 5.91 million tons (up from 4.79), and 65.13 million tons (up from 53.52) for the first 11 months of 2024. U.S. exports were 13.41 million tons (up from 12.65), Brazil's exports reached 21.16 million tons (up from 20.6), Paraguay's exports were 1.68 million tons (down from 1.8), India's exports reached 1.66 million tons (down from 1.7), and Ukraine's exports amounted to 0.62 million tons (up from 0.52).

Palm oil prices have dropped due to concerns about weak exports from Malaysia and strong competition from soyoil. During the first 20 days of December, exports fell by 8.3% compared to the same period in November. Exports to India, the largest importer, dropped by 22%. Demand for palm oil declines in winter, but it is still priced higher than soyoil, with the price gap now at 112 USD/ton (up from $79 a year earlier).

GAPKI warns that Malaysia's increase in export taxes on unrefined palm oil to 10% starting in 2025 will reduce its competitiveness in international markets, particularly against the large supply of soyoil. The current duty is 7.5%, while refined products are taxed at 3–6%.

Tunisia has purchased 100,000 tons of soft wheat, split into two 25,000-ton batches priced at 255.39–256.39 USD/ton C&F from Viterra and two 25,000-ton batches from Bulgaria supplied by Buildcom at 256.77–257.37 USD/ton C&F.

Algeria announced a tender to purchase at least 50,000 tons of milling wheat of any origin for February–March 2025 delivery. The tender results are undisclosed, but prices ranged from 258–258 USD/ton C&F. In the previous tender, 600,000 tons of wheat were purchased with December 2024 delivery.

Afghanistan's wheat production in 2024 was 4.8 million tons (+10% compared to 2023).

Jordan purchased 60,000 tons of feed barley at 252 USD/ton C&F with delivery between March 1 and 15, 2025.