Against the backdrop of a record soybean production in Russia in 2025, soybean imports might cease. In 2024, imports dropped to 0.4 million tons, compared to 1.1 million tons in 2023/24. The current record production of 7.04 million tons was achieved thanks to the inclusion of new regions in cultivation, such as the Volga region and Siberia.

The renewal of the trade war between the US and China might have less impact on the Chinese market compared to the situation seven years ago. There is a possibility that American soybeans may not reach China. During the 2021/22–2023/24 period, China increased its soybean reserves to 20 million tons. The soymeal content in feed formulations was reduced from 17.3% in 2019 to 13% in 2023. In 2023/24, Brazilian soybeans accounted for 74% of China's soybean imports. In the event of a new trade war, this share could rise to 80%.

According to an FAS USDA forecast, Argentina's soybean production in 2024/25 could reach a multi-year high. The country has sown 90% of the planned acreage, with 93% of crops reported to be in good or excellent condition. A production of 52 million tons is now expected, the highest level in the past six years. The cultivated area will reach 17.8 million hectares (+0.9 million ha), and exports are projected at 7.2 million tons (+2.2 million tons), the highest level since 2019/20.

In December, India's vegetable oil imports reached 1.19 million tons, 25% less than in November. This included 265,000 tons of sunseed oil (-22%), 503,000 tons of palm oil (-40%), marking a nine-month low. Soyoil imports increased by 3% to 420,000 tons. Currently, palm oil is about 100 USD/ton more expensive than soyoil. A further decline in palm oil imports in favor of soyoil is expected in January.

On January 8, 2025, palm oil prices in Malaysia fell due to concerns about export demand and uncertainty regarding Indonesia's biodiesel mandate. Prices dropped by 0.21% to 968 USD/ton.