As of January 25, 2025, the price difference between Ukrainian and Russian sunseed oil has reached 70 USD/ton FOB, the highest level since November. The reason for this is the weak supply of raw materials for processors in Ukraine. Last year, Ukraine processed 1.5 million tons of sunflower monthly and exported 600,000 tons of oil, whereas now it processes 800,000 tons of sunseed and exports 280,000 tons of oil. Currently, the price of Ukrainian sunseed oil is 1,100 – 1,110 USD/ton, while Russian sunseed oil is priced at 1,030 USD/ton.

According to data from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, in 2025, the total cultivated area in the country will reach 84 million hectares (+1 million compared to 2024). The area sown with spring grains will reach 28.8 million hectares, including 19 million hectares of winter grains, and 20.4 million hectares of oilseeds.

In 2024, Russia's grain exports reached a record 72 million tons (compared to 68.6 million tons in 2023). The largest buyers were Egypt (11.1 million tons), Turkey (7.2 million tons), Iran (5.6 million tons), Saudi Arabia (4.6 million tons), and Bangladesh (3.9 million tons).

As of January 29, 2025, 82% of Russia's winter wheat crops are reported to be in good to excellent condition, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

In January, Russia is expected to export 2.7 million tons of grain (compared to 5.3 million tons in January 2024). Wheat exports will amount to 2.1 million tons (4.071 million in 2024), barley exports will be 349,000 tons (476,000), and corn exports are projected at 230,000 tons (713,000). Since the beginning of the season, 36.8 million tons of grain have been exported (-15.4%), including 32.1 million tons of wheat (-7.4%). The wheat export potential for the period February 1 – June 30, 2025, is estimated at 12 million tons.

According to ProZerno, during the period of January 22 – 28, Russian grain exports amounted to 538,400 tons (-43% compared to the previous week), including 426,000 tons of wheat, 92,900 tons of barley, 13,900 tons of corn, and 5,500 tons of peas.

Between July 1, 2024, and January 29, 2025, Ukraine exported 25.353 million tons of grain (compared to 23.146 million tons in the previous season), including 3.121 million tons in January (4.582 million tons last January). Exports included 10.7 million tons of wheat (9.027 million), 2.064 million tons of barley (1.4 million), and 12.166 million tons of corn (12.465 million).

According to Anec's forecast, Brazil is expected to export between 1.8 and 2.63 million tons of soybeans in January (compared to 1.47 million tons in December and 2.4 million tons in January 2024). Between January 19 and 25, 725,600 tons of soybeans were prepared for export (compared to 204,900 tons the previous week and 1.76 million tons a year earlier). Soymeal exports in January are expected to reach 1.81 million tons (2.17 million in December and 1.76 million in January 2024), while corn exports will amount to 3.53 million tons (3.62 million in December and 3.51 million in January 2024). In the past week, corn exports are expected to be 1.22 million tons (0.708 million tons the previous week).