SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports from 43.7 million tons to 42.8 million tons. Last year’s exports were 52.4 million tons, with an average of 44.2 million tons over the past three years. The forecast was reduced due to weak current exports and export sales.
For the week of February 5–11, Russia’s export tax on wheat will be 3,941.6 RUB/ton (previously 4,430.1). The export tax on barley will be at 3,012.5 RUB/ton (previously 3,407.8), and the export tax on corn will be 4,255.3 RUB/ton (previously 4,659.1). The tax is being lowered after a series of increases. The Russian administration aims to accelerate exports, and following the global price surge, this is the only way to achieve that.
According to Ukrainian agricultural industry organizations, sunflower seed prices in Ukraine fell by 12–15 USD/ton this week to 520–530 USD/ton DAP Ukraine (Odesa), while sunseed oil prices declined to 1,010–1,080 USD/ton. The current FOB price for sunseed oil is 1,030 USD/ton.
Between July 1, 2024, and January 31, 2025, Ukraine exported 25.516 million tons of grain (compared to 23.146 million tons a year earlier), including 3.284 million tons in January (compared to 4.582 million tons). Wheat exports totaled 10.744 million tons (0.831 million tons in January), barley exports reached 2.064 million tons (0.065 million tons), and corn exports amounted to 12.284 million tons (2.375 million tons).
Soybean planting in Argentina has been completed, covering 18.4 million hectares (+1.1 million hectares compared to the previous year). As of January 29, 2025, 20% of the crops are in good or excellent condition (compared to 29% a year earlier), 52% in satisfactory condition (49%), and 28% in poor or very poor condition (22%). Corn planting has been completed on 98.7% of the planned 6.6 million hectares.