Wheat, corn, and soybean futures are starting Wednesday's session on a weaker note as traders digest USDA’s latest WASDE report, shifting export trends, and ongoing weather concerns across key growing regions. The market remains volatile as fresh supply and demand adjustments, along with macroeconomic influences, continue to shape the outlook.
Chicago wheat futures for March 2025 are trading at $5.74 per bushel, down 3 cents early in the session. The wheat market struggled to hold onto Tuesday’s slight gains following USDA’s minor downward revision to U.S. carryout projections. Kansas City hard red winter wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat are also facing weakness, pressured by sluggish demand and higher global stocks. European exports remain slow compared to last year, and South Korea's latest wheat tender adds some demand interest.
March 2025 corn futures are trading at $4.82 per bushel, down 2 cents. Corn markets are under pressure despite USDA’s cuts to both Brazilian and Argentine production in Tuesday’s report. The agency maintained U.S. carryout figures but raised the projected national cash average price. Meanwhile, Brazil’s February export estimates have been raised by ANEC, while South Korea has issued a tender for corn imports, indicating steady global demand.
Soybeans for March 2025 are priced at $10.34 ¾ per bushel, down 8 ¾ cents early Wednesday. The soybean market has been grappling with continued selling pressure despite global supply tightening. USDA left U.S. carryout unchanged in the latest WASDE update but cut Argentina’s production due to weather-related losses. Brazil’s export forecast continues to rise, and mixed estimates for its crop size add to market uncertainty. Soymeal and soy oil futures are also facing early session weakness, tracking the broader soybean complex.
USDA’s WASDE report brought limited surprises but reinforced existing trends in global grain markets. U.S. wheat carryout was trimmed slightly to 794 million bushels, reflecting a small increase in domestic food use. Global wheat stocks were cut by 1.26 million metric tons (MMT) to 257.56 MMT, signaling tighter supplies but failing to generate bullish momentum. In corn, U.S. carryout remained at 1.54 billion bushels, but Brazil’s production estimate was lowered by 1 MMT to 126 MMT, while Argentina’s was reduced by 1 MMT to 50 MMT. USDA also adjusted world corn stocks downward by 3.03 MMT to 293.34 MMT, driven in part by China’s lower expected imports. For soybeans, Argentina’s production was cut by 3 MMT to 49 MMT, with global soybean carryout lowered by 4.03 MMT to 124.34 MMT.
Brazil’s soybean production estimates remain divided among analysts. A Bloomberg survey placed output at 168.2 MMT, up 1.9 MMT from the previous official forecast, with estimates ranging from 165.6 MMT to 171 MMT. Meanwhile, AgResource increased its estimate to 172.28 MMT following a crop tour, citing strong yields in Mato Grosso and Goiás. In contrast, Patria Agronegocios lowered its projection to 165.87 MMT, highlighting weather-related losses in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná. These conflicting assessments continue to add uncertainty to the global soybean supply outlook.
Global trade dynamics remain in focus as the European Commission reported that EU soft wheat exports have reached 13 MMT for the season, down sharply from 20.4 MMT a year ago. FranceAgriMer revised its estimate for French wheat exports outside the EU to 3.4 MMT, shifting some volumes toward intra-EU trade. Meanwhile, South Korea has issued a tender for 115,000 metric tons of feed wheat, and Japan is set to buy nearly 124,000 metric tons from the U.S., Australia, and Canada.
Weather concerns are mounting for major wheat-growing regions. Ukraine’s winter wheat is at risk due to recent dry conditions, leaving soil moisture at a six-year low. While production estimates remain steady at 20.3 MMT, the upcoming cold snap raises the potential for winterkill damage. In the U.S., a powerful winter storm is expected to blanket the Plains and Midwest, providing protective snowfall for winter wheat ahead of extreme cold temperatures.
South American weather remains a critical factor in market sentiment. Dry and hot conditions are set to persist across central Brazil, posing risks to coffee, cotton, and soybean development. Argentina’s outlook is more mixed, with near-normal temperatures forecasted in the short term, but heat risks expected to return later in February, which could further pressure corn and soybean yields. Paraguay is also facing prolonged dryness, adding downside risks to its grain production.
In Argentina, logistical challenges are adding to grain market concerns. Prosecutors have flagged irregularities in a key maintenance auction for the Paraguay-Paraná river, a vital export route for soybeans, corn, and wheat. The auction’s outcome could impact shipping operations and grain exports, raising concerns for global buyers.
Palm oil markets are also in focus, as Malaysia’s stockpiles fell 7.55% in January, driven by lower production and exports. This could influence global vegetable oil prices, particularly given India’s recent drop in total vegetable oil imports. Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight, reflecting expectations of stable prices ahead of Ramadan-driven demand.
Early fund positioning shows continued selling pressure across grains, with funds net sellers of wheat, corn, and soybeans in the latest session. Soy oil saw some buying interest, while soymeal and corn faced further liquidations. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders weigh global supply uncertainties against weaker demand signals.
With grain markets reacting to shifting production forecasts, trade flows, and weather risks, volatility remains a key theme. Traders will be watching South American weather patterns, U.S. winter wheat conditions, and global export trends closely in the sessions ahead.