Chicago wheat futures for May 2025 opened at $6.00 1/4 per bushel, gaining traction following recent price declines. The wheat market saw pressure in the previous session, with Chicago SRW futures closing down 6 to 7 cents, while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat also faced declines. However, fresh buying interest emerged as traders looked ahead to the latest USDA Export Sales report, which is expected to reflect wheat bookings between 300,000 and 600,000 metric tons. FranceAgriMer reported that 74% of the French soft wheat crop is now rated good to excellent, up 1% from the previous week, adding to global supply stability.

Corn prices opened Friday with minor fluctuations, as the May 2025 contract started at $5.12 3/4 per bushel, slightly lower amid overnight trading losses. The previous session saw front-month corn futures post fractional gains, with new crop December futures rising by 3 cents at the close. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange improved its rating of the Argentine corn crop, with 19% now considered excellent, a 3% increase from last week. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council cut its global corn production estimate by 3 million metric tons, though increased stock projections helped keep prices stable. U.S. ethanol production rose slightly to 1.084 million barrels per day, but stockpiles also increased, signaling a potential slowdown in demand.

Soybean futures opened slightly lower on Friday, with the May 2025 contract beginning at $10.63 per bushel, down 1 1/2 cents from the previous session. Soybean futures had closed higher on Thursday, with gains of 10 to 15 cents, as meal and oil markets also posted strong performances. The latest export sales data, released this morning, is expected to show 100,000 to 500,000 metric tons of old crop soybean sales, with new crop estimates reaching up to 100,000 metric tons. The International Grains Council revised its global soybean production estimate downward by 2 million metric tons, bringing total world stocks to 82 million metric tons. Additionally, Argentina’s soybean crop saw a 2% improvement in its excellent rating, reflecting recent rainfall that helped replenish soil moisture levels.

Global grain markets are facing a confluence of factors that could influence trading dynamics throughout the session. The world’s largest fertilizer producer, Nutrien Ltd., expects record sales volumes this year, as U.S. and Brazilian corn acreage is projected to increase. Corn plantings in the U.S. are expected to reach 93 million acres, up from 90.6 million acres last year, which could lead to higher fertilizer demand. Meanwhile, uncertainty looms over the fertilizer market due to potential tariffs from the Trump administration on Canadian agricultural products, which could disrupt supply chains and raise input costs for U.S. farmers.

Weather conditions remain a key focus in South America, where dryness in Brazil is affecting key agricultural regions. Wet season showers in central Brazil have been highly isolated, allowing producers to make significant progress in soybean harvests and second-crop corn plantings. However, the Southeast and parts of the Center-West remain notably dry, which could limit production potential. In Argentina, extreme heat is expected to push temperatures above 35°C (95°F) in the coming days, adding stress to crops already in critical development stages. Rainfall is forecast to return early next week, which may provide some relief, though soil moisture levels remain at six-year lows in key producing regions.

On the export front, multiple international wheat tenders were issued this week. Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture purchased 96,160 metric tons of wheat from the U.S., Canada, and Australia. Taiwan’s Flour Millers’ Association bought 102,450 metric tons of U.S. milling wheat, while Jordan’s state grain buyer secured 60,000 metric tons of barley. Additionally, Bangladesh's wheat tender attracted a lowest offer of $295.21 per metric ton, indicating strong competition in the global wheat market.

In the oilseed sector, Ukrainian sunflower oil prices surged by $25 per ton, reaching $1,110–$1,120 per metric ton CPT due to rising demand and limited supply. Ukrainian sunflower seed production remains constrained by last year’s poor harvest, leading to a drop in exports from 526,000 metric tons in January 2024 to 340,000 metric tons this year. This tightening supply is putting upward pressure on vegetable oil markets globally.

French wheat plantings for the 2025 harvest have increased by 10% year-over-year, according to France’s Agriculture Ministry. Despite the higher acreage, concerns remain about excess moisture in key regions such as Brittany, Normandy, and Champagne, which could impact yield potential. Meanwhile, durum wheat acreage is at a 30-year low, reflecting shifts in planting preferences among French farmers.

In Brazil, soybean production estimates have been revised downward by 1.1 million metric tons, though total output is still projected to reach a record 171.3 million metric tons, according to Agroconsult. Mato Grosso, the country’s largest soybean-producing state, is expected to surpass 50 million metric tons for the first time, benefiting from higher yields. The ongoing Rally da Safra crop expedition confirms that the Center-North region will produce 5 million metric tons more than previously forecast, offsetting some losses in the drought-affected South.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest warmer-than-normal conditions will persist across much of South America in March, with dry weather remaining a concern in Argentina. Brazil’s climate outlook is more mixed, with potential wet weather in the South helping long-term soil moisture conditions but also delaying some soybean and corn harvests.

As global trade flows continue to shift, Brazil is expanding its agricultural ties with the UAE, seeking to strengthen exports of meat, sugar, ethanol, and tropical fruits. The ongoing Gulfood 2025 trade fair in Dubai is expected to open new opportunities for Brazilian agribusiness, particularly in sustainable and specialty food sectors. With UAE agricultural imports from Brazil rising 45.52% year-over-year, the country is positioning itself as a key supplier in the Middle East’s food security strategy.

With these developments in focus, traders are closely watching today’s session for fresh export data, weather updates, and potential policy shifts that could impact price movements across global grain markets.