The EUR/USD currency pair dropped to 1.0384. The price of US WTI crude oil rose to 70.35 USD per barrel.

Wheat futures continued their downward trajectory on Thursday, with Chicago SRW contracts declining by 17 1/4 cents to close at $5.62 1/2 per bushel. Kansas City HRW wheat futures also dropped by 13 to 14 cents, while MPLS spring wheat faced losses of 12 to 13 cents. The market experienced pressure from weak export sales data, which showed only 269,008 metric tons of U.S. wheat sales for the 2024/25 marketing year, marking a five-week low. The USDA Outlook Forum indicated an increase in U.S. wheat acreage to 47 million acres for 2025, with projected stocks at 826 million bushels. Additionally, Russian wheat production estimates for 2025 remain at 81-82 million metric tons, according to IKAR.

Corn futures struggled throughout Thursday’s session, closing with significant losses. The May 2025 corn contract dropped by 12 1/2 cents to $4.81 per bushel, weighed down by weak export demand and concerns over upcoming tariffs. President Trump corrected his earlier statement regarding the timing of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, confirming that they would take effect next Tuesday, with additional reciprocal tariffs rolling out in April. Weekly export sales data showed a disappointing 794,694 metric tons of U.S. corn bookings, the lowest in seven weeks, with Mexico being the largest buyer at 378,800 metric tons. Meanwhile, the USDA projected U.S. corn acreage for 2025 at 94 million acres, an increase of 3.4 million from last year, with a trend-adjusted yield estimate of 181 bushels per acre.

Soybean futures lost early session gains, ending the day with losses between 1 and 4 cents. The May 2025 soybean contract settled at $10.37 1/4 per bushel, down 4 cents, while soymeal futures fell by $2.50 per ton, and soyoil futures declined by 22 points. Export sales for the week totaled 410,878 metric tons, down 14.4% from the prior week but still above last year’s levels. China was the largest buyer with 202,200 metric tons, followed by Egypt at 172,500 metric tons. The USDA Outlook Forum estimated 84 million acres of soybean plantings for 2025, a decrease of 3.1 million acres from last year. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised the percentage of the soybean crop rated excellent to 24%, up from 17% last week.

Globally, grain markets faced mixed pressures from supply concerns, geopolitical developments, and weather forecasts. India’s wheat crop is at risk as the country braces for an unusually hot March, with temperatures projected to rise up to 6°C above normal in key growing regions. This could lead to another year of reduced yields, potentially forcing India to lower or eliminate its 40% wheat import tax to stabilize domestic supply. Meanwhile, soil moisture levels in the U.S. remain adequate in HRW wheat areas but are still deficient in parts of the Midwest, raising concerns about production potential.

In South America, heavy rainfall in Argentina could impact early harvests, causing localized flooding but also improving soil moisture for late-season crops. In contrast, Brazil's central and southeastern regions are facing prolonged dryness, negatively affecting sugarcane and coffee crops while facilitating a quicker soybean harvest. Brazil’s soybean production is now forecast at 170.4 million metric tons, slightly up from the previous estimate, while corn production is expected to reach 125.5 million metric tons due to improved weather conditions.

The global wheat market is also reacting to Russia’s downward revision of its 2024/25 wheat export forecast, now at 42.5 million metric tons, and its wheat production estimate, which has been lowered to 81 million metric tons. Meanwhile, Ukraine may reduce its soybean planting area by 10-15% and sunflower plantings by 5% in favor of corn, according to the country’s deputy farm minister.

On the export front, the USDA released its weekly sales report yesterday. The U.S. ethanol market also saw an increase in stocks, rising 5.2% to 27.57 million barrels, according to the Department of Energy.

Elsewhere, Argentina’s main oilseed union has threatened to strike over salary disputes, potentially disrupting soybean processing operations at Vicentin, a key player in the country’s soybean industry. With Vicentin struggling to meet its financial obligations, a potential work stoppage could tighten global soymeal and soyoil supplies, further influencing price trends in the coming weeks.

Despite the market’s overall downturn, Brazil’s soybean harvest progress continues to improve, with 36.4% of the crop harvested as of February 23, nearly on pace with last year. However, planting delays for Brazil’s second corn crop (Safrinha) remain a concern, as late planting outside the optimal window could reduce yield potential. Additionally, the USDA Outlook Forum confirmed that U.S. winter wheat production remains unchanged at 36.4 million metric tons, though low soil moisture levels in the Midwest could pose challenges moving forward.

Grain traders will continue to monitor global weather patterns, geopolitical developments, and upcoming tariff changes, all of which could shape market direction in the days ahead.