The EUR/USD currency pair decreased to 1.1792. The price of US WTI crude oil to 72.20 USD/barrel.

Oil price fell moderately as investors continued to monitor the strained relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. If an agreement is not reached, supply will not increase in August, which could lead to market shortages. However, JPMorgan Chase expects a deal to be reached. Everyone hopes that in the coming weeks OPEC+ will agree to increase production by 400 thousand barrels per day until the end of 2021.

Yesterday, Chicago September SRW wheat futures prices fell by 3 3/4 cents to close at $6.21 1/4 a bushel. It is now raining in the United States and new rains are expected. The problems with the spring wheat remain and despite them the forecasts for the new wheat production are generally good. The market expects to see wheat production estimate in the United States of 50.1 million tons in the July USDA report. The spring wheat production is expected at 12.4 million tons (-3.53 million tons compared to June). The German DBV forecasts a winter wheat production in Germany in 2021 of 22.8 million tons, which is 5% more than in 2020. Agritel estimates the Russian wheat production at 82.3 million tons in 2021.

Yesterday, CBOT December corn futures prices decreased by 8 3/4 cents to close at $5.31 a bushel. The market ignores the problems in Brazil and to some extent the problems in the United States. According to analysts, it will be difficult for corn to reach the average yield level under the current conditions for crop development in the United States. Forecasts for July are mixed and it is difficult to predict the market direction. Historically, the chances of an average or above average corn production are very high, which means that prices will fall. The expected increase in corn stocks in the United States in 2021/22 will also have a significant impact on the market. The market expects to see ending corn stocks in the United States of 27.2 million tons in 2020/21 in the USDA report. The new corn crop is projected at 383.5 million tons and ending stocks are expected to reach 34.6 million tons. Corn areas in China for 2021 have increased by 6% compared to 2020. Given the heavy rainfall, the corn production is expected to be much higher. This will reduce the need to import large quantities of corn in 2021/22.

Yesterday, CBOT November soybean futures prices rose by 22 1/4 cents to close at $13.27 1/4 a bushel. Prices rose after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The market expects to see ending soybean stocks in the United States of 4 million tons for 2021/22 and 3.68 million tons for 2020/21 in the USDA report. Market volatility will remain until the end of August. Most likely, prices will fall after that. We will see a potential price increase if there is a significant decline in the soybean production - below 115 million tons.

The weather forecast in the US in July and August is relatively favorable, ie. prices might fall. In the Black Sea region, the harvesting campaigns of wheat and barley are progressing. Yesterday, FOB prices of barley in Ukraine  fell by another 5 USD/ton to 215 USD/ton. Wheat price is also declining gradually.

Soybean and corn prices are gradually falling in China, which is a signal that things are not so bad there.