Grain Highlights 23.08.2022

Given the severe drought, MARS forecast an average corn yield in the EU in 2022 of 6.63 tons/hectare (7.25 in the previous estimate, -16% compared to 2021 and -16% compared to the five-year average).

- Over the period of March - July, almost 10 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine. For the first two weeks of August, almost 2 million tons, including 776,000 tons of corn and 339,000 tons of wheat were exported. For the whole of July, a total of 3 million tons were exported. For the whole of August, an export of 4 million tons of grain is expected. During the period of March - July 2021, the export of grain was 19.5 million tons. Over the period of March - July 2022, 3,849 million tons of corn (10 million tons a year earlier), 1,357 million tons of sunseed (935,731), 636,138 tons of wheat (3.8 million tons) and 239,113 tons of barley (-83%) have been exported.

- The Ukrainian Grain Association has lowered its forecast for the grain production in Ukraine in 2022 to 64.5 million tons (69.4 in the previous estimate). Exports will reach 32.8 million tons, initial stocks 26 million tons, and ending stocks are estimated at 30.5 million tons. Wheat production will be 19 million tons, opening wheat stocks are expected at 10 million tons, wheat exports are projected at 10 million tons, and ending wheat stocks will be 12 million tons. Barley production is expected to reach 5.4 million tons (10.1 in 2021), barley exports are predicted at 2 million tons. Corn production in Ukraine is estimated at 24 million tons (37.6) and corn exports at 10 million tons. The sunseed production will reach 9 million tons (16.9), sunseed export will be 6 million tons, ending sunseed stocks are expected to reach 5.8 million tons and sunseed processing is expected at 7 million tons (10). Rapeseed production will be 3 million tons (2.9) and rapeseed exports will reach 2.8 million tons. Soybean production is projected at 2.2 million tons (3.5) and soybean exports are projected at 1.8 million tons.

- Given the severe drought, MARS forecast an average corn yield in the EU in 2022 of 6.63 tons/hectare (7.25 in the previous estimate, -16% compared to 2021 and -16% compared to the five-year average). The average sunseed yield is expected at 2.06 tons/hectare ( 2.18, -13% and -12%), average wheat yield is projected at 5.76 tons/hectare (+0.4%, -4% and -3%), average durum wheat yield is expected at 3.42 tons/hectare (+0.6%), -4% and -3 %), average winter barley yield is estimated at 5.72 tons/hectare (no change, -6% and -1%), and the average spring barley yiled is predicted at 4.12 tons/hectare (+0.5%, -2% and +0.1%).

- According to an assessment by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission, Europe is experiencing the worst drought in the last 500 years.

- The Ministry of Agriculture of Canada has raised its forecast for the wheat production in the country by 0.8 million tons to 34.5 million tons (+12.8 compared to 2021/22). Durum wheat production estimate increased to 6.3 million tons (3.6 in 2021/22). Wheat exports from Canada are projected at 23 million tons (+0.6 and 15), and durum wheat exports are estimated at 5 million tons (+0.6 and 2.7). Ending stocks of wheat will be 6.8 million tons (4.2). The barley production will reach 9.4 million tons (+0.3 and 7), and barley export are expected to reach 3.5 million tons (+0.4 and 2.6).

- India will buy 2.6 million tons of palm oil from Indonesia worth 3.16 billion USD.