Grain Highlights 10.10.2022

Conab raised its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Brazil by 2 million tons from the previous estimate to 152.4 million tons (125.5 in the previous season).

- Over the week of October 3-9, wheat exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk were 388,600 tons (239,000 a week earlier). The biggest customers were Egypt with 147,400 tons and Turkey with 96,100 tons.

- More than 500,000 tons of sunseed oil were exported from Ukraine in September, which is 36% more than in August and is a record for this month of the year. The main customers were the EU with a share of 37% and Turkey with a share of 27%. Exports to India resumed during the month and were over 100,000 tons.

- On Friday, Chicago commodity funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of corn, 4,500 contracts of soybeans and 750 contracts of wheat.

- Conab raised its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Brazil by 2 million tons from the previous estimate to 152.4 million tons (125.5 in the previous season). Soybean areas will be 42.9 million hectares (+1.4 compared to the previous season). Domestic soybean consumption is projected at 55 million tons (+2.7), exports 95.9 million tons (+17.6), and ending soybean stocks are expected to reach 6.3 million tons (+2). Soymeal production is expected to reach 38.8 million tons (37.3 in 2021/22), soybeam exports are estimated at 19 million tons (+0.1). Soyoil production will reach 10.3 million tons (+0.4), and soyoil export are expected to reach 1.8 million tons (-0.3). The corn production is expected at the level of 126.9 million tons (112.8) and corn areas are projected at ​​22.4 million hectares (21.6). The first corn production will be 28.7 million tons (+3.7), and the second corn production is predicted at 96.3 million tons (+10.7). Domestic corn consumption will reach 81.8 million tons (+4.8), exports are estimated at 45 million tons (+8), and ending corn stocks are expected at 10.2 million tons (+1.7).

- According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2.515 million tons of wheat were exported from Australia in August (-3% compared to July). In September and October, exports are expected to be below 2 million tons per month. In November, exports will be higher in connection with the harvesting campaign of the new wheat crop.

- Heavy and prolonged rainfall in India has already damaged some of India's summer crops such as rice, soybeans, cereals and cotton. The authorities will further limit the export of rice, wheat, and sugar, and the country's central bank will raise interest rates. In the past week alone, rainfall in the rice-producing state of Uttar Pradesh exceeded normal by 500%.

- According to data from S&P Global plats, palm oil exports from Malaysia will reach 2.21 million tons in September, which is 5.7% more than August. Palm oil production during the month reached 1.73 million tons (1.72) and exports were 1.29 million tons (+9%). Over the period of October - December, production will reach 4.8 million tons (5.06 in July - September).

- Market operators report that Algeria has bought 250,000 tons of durum most likely from Canada at USD 494 – 495/ton C&F with delivery within October – November. A tender has been announced for the purchase of at least 50,000 tons of soft wheat with delivery in November.