Grain Highlights 02.12.2022

StoneX again raises its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Brazil by 0.7 million tons to 155 million tons, which is 29.5 million tons more than the previous year.

- Over the July-November period, 19.8 million tons of grain were exported from Russia, which is 1.4 million tons more than the previous year, but below the record of 2020/21 - 22.4 million tons, according to data from Rusagrotrans. In November alone, exports were 4.75 million tons.

- During the week of December 7 - 13, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 2,806.8 rubles/ton (2,788 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 2,315 rubles/ton (2,308.6) and there will be no export tax on corn.

- According to USDA data, soybean processing in the United States in October reached 5.9 million tons (+17% compared to September and -0.2% compared to October 2021). Rapeseed processing was 205,780 tons (-9% and +5%).

- StoneX again raises its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Brazil by 0.7 million tons to 155 million tons, which is 29.5 million tons more than the previous year. Soybean exports are expected to reach 96 million tons (+9.9). After the expansion of second corn crop areas, the forecast for total production increases by 0.4 million tons to 130.3 million tons (+17.5), and exports are projected to reach 46 million tons (+7.5).

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange as of 01.12.2022, 51% of the wheat crops in Argentina are in poor and very poor condition (52% a week earlier and 4% a year earlier), 40% are in a fair condition (41 % and 31%) and 9% are in good and excellent condition (7% and 65%). 23% of the wheat areas have already been harvested (+10.5% for the week and -21.9% compared to last year), with 2.1 million tons of wheat harvested at an average yield of 1.56 tons/hectare. 97% of the area have been sown with sunseed, 29.1% with soybeans and 25.4% with corn.

- After the introduction of a preferential dollar exchange rate in Argentina, farmers are actively selling soybeans. On Tuesday, the country's largest commodity exchange sold 567,800 tons of soybeans, the highest level for the past two months. The previous record was set on Monday 28.11.2022 – 299,000 tons. In total, during the period of November 28-29, sales reached 866,700 tons.

- According to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat yields in Argentina are below expectations. The current wheat production forecast on the exchange is 12.4 million tons, but this is likely to be lowered. Due to the drought, farmers are delaying the sowing of soybeans, and so far 29.1% of the planned amount has been sown (-17.2% compared to the previous season).

- According to analysts, the demand for corn in Asia (mainly Southeast Asia) in 2023 will remain unchanged compared to 2022. The expensive dollar and logistics problems in the US are the reason for the largest consumers in the world - the countries of Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China not to increase consumption. The cheapest now are supplies from Brazil and Argentina. Demand for feed grain in Egypt has also been depressed due to payment problems. Small ships with Ukrainian grain are wanted, while a year ago corn was delivered from the United States or South America with 60,000 thousand tons of ships.

- Over the period of January - October, corn imports in China reached 19.01 million tons, which is 27.5% less than the previous year. It is likely that the demand for corn in China will increase in 2023. Now, immediately after the harvesting campaign, prices in the country also increase, which is an unusual phenomenon. The rise in pork prices will be a major driver for grains as well.