Grain Highlights 30.01.2023

Rusagrotrans has lowered its forecast for the wheat production in Russia in 2023 by 1 million tons to 81.5 million tons.

- During the week of February 23-29, 527,000 tons of wheat were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk (456,000 a week earlier), including 119,000 tons for Turkey and 111,000 tons for Kenya.

- Over the period of 01.07.2022 - 30.01.2023, 26,274 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine (37,951 a year earlier), including 3,528 million tons in January (5,479). Wheat exports were 9.44 million tons (1,033 in January), barley exports were 1,815 million tons (189,000) and corn exports reached 14,911 million tons (2,287).

- In 2023, the grain production in Ukraine will be 46 million tons (-15% compared to 2022).

- According to a forecast by Strategie Grains, sunseed production in the EU is expected to reach 11.3 million tonsin 2023/24 (+0.1 compared to the previous estimate and +2.3 compared to 2022/23). Soybean production will be 3.2 million tons (+0.1 and 2.5), and rapeseed production is projected at 19.5 million tons (no changes).

- In their latest forecast, Safras&Mercado expect a 2022/23 corn production in Brazil of 125.3 million tons (-1.3 compared to the previous estimate), including first corn production of 23.7 million tons (-1.1 vs. previous estimate and -1.3 vs. 2021/22) and second corn production of 87.7 million tons (-1.8 vs. previous estimate).

- After three consecutive La Niña phenomena, El Niño awaits us now. It is associated with drought in southern and southeastern parts of Asia and Australia, and heavy rainfall in South America. During the period March - May, the world climate will be neutral. El Niño will develop in the fall and winter in the Northern Hemisphere. It is difficult to predict as of now which crops will be affected exactly, but at first sight the next productions in South America will be good given the expected rainfall.

- According to FAS USDA forecast (May - April) the corn production in South Africa is projected t reach 15.6 million tons in 2023/24 (16.1 in 2022/23). Exports will reach 2.5 million tons (3), with the largest customers likely to be Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Botswana, Mexico.

- On 31.01.2023, Algeria will hold a tender for the purchase of at least 50,000 tons of durum wheat of any origin and February-March delivery.

- On 01.02.2023, the state company of Egypt GASC will hold a tender for the purchase of feed corn with delivery within 20.02 - 10.03.2023.

- The state company of Egypt GASC has announced a tender for the purchase of 30,000 tons of soyoil and 10,000 tons of sunseed oil with delivery within 25.02 - 30.03.2023.