Grain Highlights 12.05.2023

Russian sources report that the grain deal will be extended for another 60 days from 05/18/2023.

- Over the week of May 17-23, the export tax on Russian wheat will reach 4,727.6 rubles/ton (5,279.2 a week earlier), the export tax on barley will be 2,117.8 rubles/ton (2,676.2) and the export tax on corn will be 2,364.3 rubles/ton (2,523.9).

- From the beginning of the season to 12.05.2023, 43.336 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine, including 1.45 million tons in May. 14.89 million tons of wheat (492,000), 2.523 million tons of barley (58,000), and 25.595 million tons of corn (897,000) were exported.

- Over the period September - April, the export of sunseed oil from Ukraine reached 3.8 million tons, which is 12% more than the previous year. Over the period of May - August, the export may be 0.8 million tons. In 2023/24, exports will reach 4.57 million tons, which will be the lowest level since 2016/17.

- As of May 11, 2023, 3,587 million hectares were sown with cereals in Ukraine, including 1.267 million hectares for the last week. 246,600 hectares were sown with spring wheat and 736,700 hectares with spring barley. 2,726 million hectares were sown with sunseed, and 748,800 hectares have been sown with soybeans.

- Moldova will introduce monitoring of grain imported from Ukraine. The aim is to monitor the flows of Ukrainian grain and not to keep them in the country for long. The government provides additional financial assistance to local farmers.

- According to data from FranceAgriMer, 80% of the planned areas have been sown with corn in France (+21% for the last week, 90% a year earlier and 85% on average for the last five years). 94% of soft wheat crops (82% a year earlier), 88% of durum wheat crops (77%), 92% of winter barley crops (79%) and 95% of spring barley crops (76%) are in good and excellent condition. .

- On Thursday, Chicago commodity funds were net sellers of 8,500 contracts of corn and 5,000 contracts of wheat and neutral on soybeans.

- According to Conab's latest forecast, the soybean production in Brazil will reach 154.8 million tons in 2022/23 (+23.3% for the year). Corn production is projected at 125.5 million tons (+11%), including second corn production of 96.1 million tons (+12%). Soybean exports will reach 95 million tons, and corn exports are expected to reach 48 million tons.

- Anec raised its forecast for soybean exports from Brazil in May by 3.3 million tons to 15.4 million tons (10.3 in May 2022). Soymeal exprots are estimated at 2.4 million tons (+0.2 and 1.1), corn exports are expected at 319,400 tons (324,100) and wheat exports are projected to reach 118,400 tons (48,200).

- According to an estimate by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, 1.1 million tons of vegetable oils were delivered to India in April, which is 10% less than the previous month. Imports of palm oil were 510,100 tons (-30%), soyoil reached 262,500 tons (+1%) and sunseed oil imports were 249,100 tons (+68%). From the beginning of the season to 30.04.2023, the import of oils was 8.1 million tons (+21%).

- Egypt's state company GASC has purchased 34,000 tons of vegetable oils as follows - 12,000 tons of soyoil at 1,025 USD/ton C&F and 22,000 tons of sunseed oil at 950 USD/ton C&F. Deliveries will be made over the period of 25.06 - 10.07.2023.