Grain Highlights 20.10.2023

According to StoneX's forecast, recent rains in Australia have raised the estimate for the wheat production in 2023/24 to 26 million tons (compared to the previous estimate of 23 million tons).

During the first 9 months of 2023, Russia exported 5 million tons of vegetable oils (+44% compared to 2022), including 3.1 million tons of sunseed oil (+36%).

From October 25th to 31st, 2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 5,297.7 rubles per ton (5,734.7), barley will remain duty-free, and the export tax on corn will be 2,218.1 rubles per ton (3,271.8).

As of October 19, 2023, Ukraine has harvested 39.228 million tons of grain, including 9.282 million tons of corn from 34% of the total planting area. The harvested sunseed production is 10.21 million tons (86% of the planting area), and soybean production amounts to 4.24 million tons (91%).

From the beginning of the season until October 20, 2023, Ukraine has exported 8.02 million tons of grain (11.526 compared to the previous year), including 1.267 million tons in October (2.834). Wheat exports amounted to 4.069 million tons (4.363), barley exports reached 656,000 tons (950,000), and corn exports were 3.175 million tons (6.17).

By the end of 2023, Romania plans to increase its export capacity for Ukrainian grain from 2 million tons to 4 million tons per month.

According to data from the Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires, 50% of wheat crops in Argentina are in good to excellent condition (+5% compared to the previous week).

According to the General Customs Administration of China, soybean imports from Brazil increased by 23% in September compared to September 2022, reaching 6.88 million tons, the highest level in the last three months. During the first 9 months of the year, imports from Brazil reached 54.87 million tons (+18%). In September, deliveries from the United States amounted to 133,692 tons (1.15 million tons), with a year-to-date total of 20.08 million tons (+8%). Overall soybean imports in China reached 7.15 million tons in September.

According to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, the summer grain production in the country in 2023 was 146.13 million tons (-0.09% compared to 2022).

According to StoneX's forecast, recent rains in Australia have raised the estimate for the wheat production in 2023/24 to 26 million tons (compared to the previous estimate of 23 million tons). IKON Commodities estimates the production at 28 million tons (25), and Rabobank at 26.9 million tons. Last year's production was 39.7 million tons, and the average production for the last 10 years is 26.4 million tons.